Tories take record 9% lead with ICM After a 24 hours which has seen biting criticism from inside his party at the plans to increase the number of women Tory MPs the ICM Guardian poll for August is out this morning and shows that his party in in a position where it could just have a working majority after the next election. The headline figures with changes on last month are CON 40% (+1): LAB 31% (-4): LDEM 22% (+5)….
Is he right to push a change on which he could be beaten? Ever since he was elected as leader critics have argued that David Cameron needs to do more than have smart presentation to prove to the electorate that the Tory party has changed. For this, like Tony Blair with Clause Four in the mid-1990s, Cameron has needed an issue on which he can campaign. Today he is to announce moves that could prove to be highly controversial and…
Home Secretary’s “positive impression” rating up 15% in eleven days The latest YouGov BrandIndex data published on the UK Polling Report site shows a massive boost for the Home Secretary, John Reid (GREEN) since he came to prominence over his handling of the alleged terror plots. As can be seen from the chart he is well ahead of his potential Labour leadership rival, Gordon Brown (BROWN) and now enjoys poll ratings ahead of the Tory leader, David Cameron (BLUE), whose…
Brown has 7% lead on Cameron on being a “capable PM” The Sunday Times this morning features a Mori poll on immigration and leader ratings but without a voting intention question and without using the measures other pollsters employ to ensure that their samples are politically representative. The most significant finding is that 47% of those surveyed think that Tony Blair should go immediately with 56% wanting him out before the end of the year. This is by far the…
The Independent reports left-wing moves to press for an election A report by Colin Brown, Deputy Political Editor of the Independent, this morning says that “..demands for Tony Blair to quit over his support for US President George W Bush in the Middle East are to be taken to Labour’s annual conference next month in a direct challenge to his leadership by left-wing Labour campaigners.” He says that all constituency Labour parties are being sent an emergency resolution calling for…
How London Voted on May 5th I have now finished working out how each of the new constituencies voted in May’s local elections. This is a useful exercise, as the new boundaries will almost certainly be in force at the time of the next election. As each of the three main parties contested the vast majority of London’s council seats, it is quite easy to work out the results by constituency. In each case, I have taken the highest vote…
At what stage is it worth betting on the Chancellor? The above chart shows the best betting price available on Gordon Brown to be the next Labour leader shown as an implied probability. This morning on the Betfair betting exchange you could get 0.44/1 – which for those less familiar with betting prices means that an investment of £100 would produce a profit of £44 on top of getting your stake back if he made it. So is that good…
Yougov finds that less than one in two believes the politicians In a YouGov poll for this week’s Spectator just 49% of those surveyed said “No” to the question “Do you think British politicians generally exaggerate the terrorist threat?” A total of 12% said they did exaggerate “because they are ill informed themselves” while 23%, nearly a quarter, agreed with the statement “Yes, they do – and they know that the truth is not as they portray it”. Men seem…