politicalbetting.com

One of the great things about the pollster Ipsos is that it has been carrying out political surveys in the UK since the mid-1970s. In the early days, it was known just as MORI but now it is part of the international polling group Ipsos. It has an incredible polling library which enables it to produce comparisons like the one above on how various opposition leaders were doing at this stage into their term of office. One thing the chart…

Read More Read More

My one WH2024 Republican nomination bet so far is on the former governor of South Carolina and Trump’s ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley. That is pretty impressive CV. A big reason is that she is likely to do very well her own state’s primary which usually comes straight after Iowa and New Hampshire. If that happens then it’s likely she will be portrayed in the media as the frontrunner to take on Trump very early on in the…

Read More Read More

There were two Braverman statements on Monday in the Commons. Only one of them really matters and it is not the one which has so exercised the commentariat. It is the Home Office’s formal response to the final report of IICSA and its 20 recommendations for an effective and comprehensive system for the protection of children from what the inquiry chair described as a “national epidemic” of abuse. The Inquiry was set up in March 2015 by Mrs May following…

Read More Read More

As well as the regular general election voting intention polls we should not ignore the leader approval numbers and the latest weekly numbers from R&W sees both Sunak and Starmer taking a bit of a tumble. The big challenge for opposition leaders is getting their voice heard because inevitably they can only say things whereas the PM can do things that can be both a positive and a negative. I like the way R&W test this every week in its…

Read More Read More

As can be seen in the Smarkets chart Biden has continued to rise in the WH2024 betting and the main limitation he faces is in relation to his own health. When the primaries start in early January he will be 81 and that is surely going to become an issue. It is increasingly likely in the eyes of punters that WH2024 will be a rematch of WH2024 with Biden facing Trump. All the polling has voters saying that Biden should…

Read More Read More

The big political betting news today is that a by-election looks set to take place in the Scottish seat of Rutherglen and Hamilton West which was an SNP gain from LAB at GE2019. The Rutherglen and Hamilton West MP broke Covid rules in 2020 by traveling on a train from London to Scotland having tested positive. The standards watchdog recommended that she be banned from the Commons for 30 days – a punishment that has now been confirmed. This now leaves the…

Read More Read More

It is becoming harder to see how the Home Secretary survives in her position following the revelations about her efforts to avoid a speeding ticket. The standard thing for drivers who are caught going over the limit is for them to either face a fine and three points on their licence or attend a special session on the dangers of going too fast. It is alleged that Braverman tried to get civil servants on her team to press for her…

Read More Read More

Earlier on this week The Guardian reported that Conservatives need to recognise that elections are won on economics and public services rather than culture wars, Michael Gove has said in what will be seen as a rebuke to Suella Braverman. Addressing the National Conservatism (NatCon) conference in Westminster, a day after Braverman gave a highly partisan speech to the same event which condemned “experts and elites” and “political correctness”, Gove was at pains to make no direct criticism of the home secretary. But…

Read More Read More