Does he duck it or does he give a platform to his opponents? Assuming that there’s a serious contest for the Labour leadership, which looks increasingly likely, then a huge call that Gordon and his team will have to make is how to respond to the inevitable calls for the contenders to take part in a series of TV debates. The pattern was set by the Davis-Cameron confrontations last November and there were similar debates with the Lib Dem contenders…
Will “loans for honours” be what determines the leaving date? With some union leaders planning to walk out on the Prime Minister when he makes his speech at the TUC today September is continuing to be a nightmare month for Labour’s triple General Election winner. For not only has he been forced to harden up his leaving plans but still simmering in the background is the police investigation into the cash and loans for peerages tow. Already it’s known that…
Does the latest price of 0.62/1 offer good value? The chart above shows the odds on Gordon Brown succeeding from just after the General Election until this afternoon. As can be seen in the immediate aftermath of May 5th 2005 there was a very high expectancy that the Chancellor would move into No 10 within a very short period and there was no real suggestion that anybody else could pose a challenge. At the time I argued that prices of…
Can the party even contemplate a fourth term without Blair? For all the excitement now there’s a firm end to the Tony Blair era in sight the uncomfortable question has to be asked – is it possible for Labour to win General Elections without him? Has the pressure from the party that forced his September 2004 commitment not to run for a fourth term and last week’s mid-2007 departure statement meant that Labour has killed it’s Golden Goose? Here’s a…
Are the party rules “fit for purpose? If I was an opposition “attack dog” I would be licking my lips in anticipation over Labour’s coming leadership election. For unlike what has become the norm in other parties the choice of Labour leader is not determined by a membership ballot in which all votes have equal value. For a process that might have looked democratic when last used 12 years ago when the party was not in power now has a…
For Labour’s sake, Tony Blair must go now Regular readers of this site will know that I am not one of New Labour’s greatest fans. In fact, I would be happy to see the Labour Party go the same way as the Liberals in the 1920s. Nonetheless, I am not being cynical in offering my opinion that the sooner Tony Blair goes, the better for Labour. Tony Blair’s own opinion poll ratings are dreadful. YouGov’s BrandIndex and MORI are at…
Is his inability to take criticism his fatal flaw? My biggest “person” bet of 2004 was a big lay when he was odds on that the former Governor of Vermont, Howard Dean, would not take the Democratic nomination. I risked a thousand or so after being advised by an academic friend in the state that Dean had furious temper and that sooner or later he would blow himself up – which it did. My biggest person bet in 2005 was…
Is it too late for a timetable? You usually feel like a circling vulture when a politician announces at short notice that a “statement” is on its way. But Tony Blair’s announcement yesterday felt underwhelming in the circumstances. A month ago, say, the news that Blair would certainly be gone 12 months from now would probably have been enough to convince the rebels that they should more or less hold their tongues until then. This week’s catharsis, though, gives the…