Why are more people “remembering” that they voted for the party? With the brand new Tory logo now published for the first time I thought that this morning might be a good moment to report on a polling trend that could provide a small but significant boost to Cameron’s party. This is a bit complicated to explain but basically in the last 2-3 months there has been a big increase in the proportion of those being interviewed by Populus and…
But is the firm embarrassed by its own results? After being behind the Tories in 26 consecutive public polls there’s news this afternoon of a Mori poll taken at the start of the month which has Tony Blair’s party back into the lead. The top line figures with comparisons on the last Mori poll in July are: CON 35%(-1): LAB 36% (+4): LD 19% (-5). The fieldwork was carried out from August 31st to September 6th and so only those…
Will Labour’s new leader seek an early mandate? For all the excitement we might have on PBC the bookies have been most reluctant to open any decent markets on the biggest change in the UK political landscape for more than a decade. None of the spread companies, for instance, has got into the Labour leadership – a sharp contrast with what they did during last year’s Tory contest. I suppose that their view is that it is a foregone conclusion…
Will Gordon mop-up those who switched in 2005? If the punters, the pundits and the pollsters have got this one right then in a few months time the Chancellor, Gordon Brown, will take over the Labour leadership and start the post-Blair era in British politics. The big question for the Lib Dems is where the changed political environment leaves them? For while the Tories were going through their fourteen year nightmare it’s been Paddy’s, then Charles’s and now Ming’s party…
After the little wobble the Chancellor is back in favour There’s been a big move back to Brown on the Labour leadership betting markets overnight and his latest (0300 BST) best price is 0.46/1. The market still has some way to move before it gets to the 0.38/1 which is the best you could have got exactly a week ago when Tom Watson’s resignation started the ball rolling. There does not seem to be a single reason for the market…
Does he duck it or does he give a platform to his opponents? Assuming that there’s a serious contest for the Labour leadership, which looks increasingly likely, then a huge call that Gordon and his team will have to make is how to respond to the inevitable calls for the contenders to take part in a series of TV debates. The pattern was set by the Davis-Cameron confrontations last November and there were similar debates with the Lib Dem contenders…
Will “loans for honours” be what determines the leaving date? With some union leaders planning to walk out on the Prime Minister when he makes his speech at the TUC today September is continuing to be a nightmare month for Labour’s triple General Election winner. For not only has he been forced to harden up his leaving plans but still simmering in the background is the police investigation into the cash and loans for peerages tow. Already it’s known that…
Does the latest price of 0.62/1 offer good value? The chart above shows the odds on Gordon Brown succeeding from just after the General Election until this afternoon. As can be seen in the immediate aftermath of May 5th 2005 there was a very high expectancy that the Chancellor would move into No 10 within a very short period and there was no real suggestion that anybody else could pose a challenge. At the time I argued that prices of…