Is his inability to take criticism his fatal flaw? My biggest “person” bet of 2004 was a big lay when he was odds on that the former Governor of Vermont, Howard Dean, would not take the Democratic nomination. I risked a thousand or so after being advised by an academic friend in the state that Dean had furious temper and that sooner or later he would blow himself up – which it did. My biggest person bet in 2005 was…
Is it too late for a timetable? You usually feel like a circling vulture when a politician announces at short notice that a “statement” is on its way. But Tony Blair’s announcement yesterday felt underwhelming in the circumstances. A month ago, say, the news that Blair would certainly be gone 12 months from now would probably have been enough to convince the rebels that they should more or less hold their tongues until then. This week’s catharsis, though, gives the…
What are the implications of Blair’s statement? My first reaction to this afternoon’s statement is that it makes Gordon Brown’s task just a little bit harder. We are now in an eight or nine month countdown which, as I argued yesterday, makes it a little easier for other challengers to develop their campaigns and come into the race. The critical question remains – will Gordon face a serious challenge when the vote comes? Everything that likely contenders do in the…
Is Tony trying to make Gordon fight for the job? From the acres of space devoted to the Labour leadership this morning there has been little on what to me is the key issue – that Tony is not playing ball over Gordon’s plan to get into No. 10 without having to fight a real contest. All the talk of ‘smooth transition’ seems to have been on the assumption that Tony Blair would do what he could to make the…
Does Tony actually want to hold on? You all read the news, but to state the obvious, it’s been a bad couple of days for Tony Blair. The string of resignations, even if all but one were Parliamentary Private Secretaries (not even members of the government, strictly speaking) hasn’t robbed the government of its most respected figures, but gives a pretty good impression of chaos. Blair’s allies plead for “a dignified departure”, which seems to mean setting a date sometime…
Will there be another wheeze to keep the show going? One of my great sayings used to be “Nobody ever got rich betting against Tony Blair”. Certainly he has been in tight corners before and the money has piled in from punters on an early departure. Just three years ago, in the frenzy over the Hutton Inquiry following David Kelly’s death, Blair became odds on for a while to go before the end of September 2003. Then on one famous…
Isn’t this how Michael Howard stopped David Davis? From my holiday apartment near Nice where my sole source of news for nearly a fortnight has been the internet on my pda phone I accept that I might be reading Labour’s leadership developments completely wrongly. But would it really help Gordon if Blair announced a fixed time-table for a July 2007 departure? What that would do, surely, is fire the starting pistol on a ten month leadership campaign which could see…
A guest article by Paul Maggs Two overseas elections take place on 1st October. Brazil holds the first round of its presidential election, and President Lula is virtually assured of victory – indeed he may clear the required 50% share on the first ballot. Closer to home, Austria also goes to the polls, but here the outcome is less clear-cut. A recent poll gives the ruling centre-right People’s Party (ÖVP) a 2-point lead over the Social Democrats (SPÖ) – all…