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Have the Lib Dems the most to lose from Gordon?

13/9/2006 Editor

Will Gordon mop-up those who switched in 2005? If the punters, the pundits and the pollsters have got this one right then in a few months time the Chancellor, Gordon Brown, will take over the Labour leadership and start the post-Blair era in British politics. The big question for the Lib Dems is where the changed political environment leaves them? For while the Tories were going through their fourteen year nightmare it’s been Paddy’s, then Charles’s and now Ming’s party…

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The markets move back to Gordon

13/9/2006 Editor

After the little wobble the Chancellor is back in favour There’s been a big move back to Brown on the Labour leadership betting markets overnight and his latest (0300 BST) best price is 0.46/1. The market still has some way to move before it gets to the 0.38/1 which is the best you could have got exactly a week ago when Tom Watson’s resignation started the ball rolling. There does not seem to be a single reason for the market…

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Would Brown block leadership TV debates?

12/9/2006 Editor

Does he duck it or does he give a platform to his opponents? Assuming that there’s a serious contest for the Labour leadership, which looks increasingly likely, then a huge call that Gordon and his team will have to make is how to respond to the inevitable calls for the contenders to take part in a series of TV debates. The pattern was set by the Davis-Cameron confrontations last November and there were similar debates with the Lib Dem contenders…

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Could Scotland Yard finally do it for Blair?

12/9/2006 Editor

Will “loans for honours” be what determines the leaving date? With some union leaders planning to walk out on the Prime Minister when he makes his speech at the TUC today September is continuing to be a nightmare month for Labour’s triple General Election winner. For not only has he been forced to harden up his leaving plans but still simmering in the background is the police investigation into the cash and loans for peerages tow. Already it’s known that…

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Is now the moment to bet on Brown?

11/9/2006 Editor

Does the latest price of 0.62/1 offer good value? The chart above shows the odds on Gordon Brown succeeding from just after the General Election until this afternoon. As can be seen in the immediate aftermath of May 5th 2005 there was a very high expectancy that the Chancellor would move into No 10 within a very short period and there was no real suggestion that anybody else could pose a challenge. At the time I argued that prices of…

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Has Labour killed off its electoral “golden goose”

11/9/2006 Editor

Can the party even contemplate a fourth term without Blair? For all the excitement now there’s a firm end to the Tony Blair era in sight the uncomfortable question has to be asked – is it possible for Labour to win General Elections without him? Has the pressure from the party that forced his September 2004 commitment not to run for a fourth term and last week’s mid-2007 departure statement meant that Labour has killed it’s Golden Goose? Here’s a…

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Is Labour ready for the flack over its election system?

10/9/2006 Editor

Are the party rules “fit for purpose? If I was an opposition “attack dog” I would be licking my lips in anticipation over Labour’s coming leadership election. For unlike what has become the norm in other parties the choice of Labour leader is not determined by a membership ballot in which all votes have equal value. For a process that might have looked democratic when last used 12 years ago when the party was not in power now has a…

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Sean Fear’s local election column

9/9/2006 Editor

For Labour’s sake, Tony Blair must go now Regular readers of this site will know that I am not one of New Labourâ€™s greatest fans. In fact, I would be happy to see the Labour Party go the same way as the Liberals in the 1920s. Nonetheless, I am not being cynical in offering my opinion that the sooner Tony Blair goes, the better for Labour. Tony Blairâ€™s own opinion poll ratings are dreadful. YouGovâ€™s BrandIndex and MORI are at…

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