Would a Johnson challenge cost the party a million?

Would a Johnson challenge cost the party a million?

Is Alan being put under pressure over the cost of an election? It is my understranding that a lot of pressure is being put on Alan Johnson and other potential Labour leadership challengers not to stand because of the cost to the cash-starved party of running a contested election. A figure of £1m to mount an election is being bandied about and given the job cut-backs that Labour is having to impose the pressure on potential challengers not to stand…

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YouGov: Brown falling even further behind Cameron

YouGov: Brown falling even further behind Cameron

Poll for Sun has Tory leader nine points ahead A new YouGov poll for today’s Sun has Gordon Brown falling even further behind David Cameron to the question “If you had to choose – who do you think would make the better Prime Minister – Gordon Brown or David Cameron”. These were the shares with comparisons on the same question just one week ago. Brown 34 (-2): Cameron 43 (+2) The Sun seeks to explain Cameron’s lead by noting “This…

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Is Cameron about to get a polling weightings boost?

Is Cameron about to get a polling weightings boost?

Why are more people “remembering” that they voted for the party? With the brand new Tory logo now published for the first time I thought that this morning might be a good moment to report on a polling trend that could provide a small but significant boost to Cameron’s party. This is a bit complicated to explain but basically in the last 2-3 months there has been a big increase in the proportion of those being interviewed by Populus and…

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Mori poll sensation – Labour 1% ahead!

Mori poll sensation – Labour 1% ahead!

But is the firm embarrassed by its own results? After being behind the Tories in 26 consecutive public polls there’s news this afternoon of a Mori poll taken at the start of the month which has Tony Blair’s party back into the lead. The top line figures with comparisons on the last Mori poll in July are: CON 35%(-1): LAB 36% (+4): LD 19% (-5). The fieldwork was carried out from August 31st to September 6th and so only those…

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What about a General Election date market?

What about a General Election date market?

Will Labour’s new leader seek an early mandate? For all the excitement we might have on PBC the bookies have been most reluctant to open any decent markets on the biggest change in the UK political landscape for more than a decade. None of the spread companies, for instance, has got into the Labour leadership – a sharp contrast with what they did during last year’s Tory contest. I suppose that their view is that it is a foregone conclusion…

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Have the Lib Dems the most to lose from Gordon?

Have the Lib Dems the most to lose from Gordon?

Will Gordon mop-up those who switched in 2005? If the punters, the pundits and the pollsters have got this one right then in a few months time the Chancellor, Gordon Brown, will take over the Labour leadership and start the post-Blair era in British politics. The big question for the Lib Dems is where the changed political environment leaves them? For while the Tories were going through their fourteen year nightmare it’s been Paddy’s, then Charles’s and now Ming’s party…

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The markets move back to Gordon

The markets move back to Gordon

After the little wobble the Chancellor is back in favour There’s been a big move back to Brown on the Labour leadership betting markets overnight and his latest (0300 BST) best price is 0.46/1. The market still has some way to move before it gets to the 0.38/1 which is the best you could have got exactly a week ago when Tom Watson’s resignation started the ball rolling. There does not seem to be a single reason for the market…

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Would Brown block leadership TV debates?

Would Brown block leadership TV debates?

Does he duck it or does he give a platform to his opponents? Assuming that there’s a serious contest for the Labour leadership, which looks increasingly likely, then a huge call that Gordon and his team will have to make is how to respond to the inevitable calls for the contenders to take part in a series of TV debates. The pattern was set by the Davis-Cameron confrontations last November and there were similar debates with the Lib Dem contenders…

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