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Guest slot: Does ditching a leader help you win?

20/9/2006 Editor

Harry Hayfield reports on the historical precedents Following Tony Blair’s statement two weeks ago now seems an opportune moment to look at past prime ministerial resignations whilst in office and the effect it has on all the parties. Since the war, only four prime ministers have resigned whilst in office. So let’s start with the first of those resignations back in 1957. Eden had won a sizable majority in the 1955 general election and the polls reflected this, however Eden…

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Why do Labour supporters still go 2-1 for Tony?

20/9/2006 Editor

The betting markets move to a later departure date With Tony Blair preparing for his final Labour conference as party leader there was a nugget of good news for him in the detailed data, now available, from the latest ICM poll. For when asked “Who do you think will make a better Prime Minister, Gordon Brown or Tony Blair?” the poll came out 40-30% for Tony. But even more significantly the declared Labour supporters in the sample went 61% for…

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The world’s different as a contender Mr. Johnson!

19/9/2006 Editor

How will the contestants cope with the media scrutiny? If Alan Johnson had just been an ordinary cabinet minister then today’s row over the alleged attempt to “bury” poor school results would probably have gone unnoticed. For this is what minsters do all the time. If there’s some news that has to be made public that might be embarrassing then you announce something positive at the same time in the hope that good will bury the bad. But as of…

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Is today the day to put your money on Ming?

19/9/2006 Editor

Surely he’ll still be leader in two years time? After a conference which started with a gloomy opinion poll the Lib Dem leader goes into today’s session in Brighton knowing that he has a fight on his hands over the leadership’s taxation plans. With Lib Dem conferences it is always hard judging how key votes will go but there’s little doubt that the “50% tax” faction has got a fair degree of support and it could be that Ming is…

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Will Tony go on for another 25 weeks?

18/9/2006 Editor

Do the spread markets offer good value? The big unanswered question in the Labour succession is how long is Tony going to stay. In the past three weeks opinion has moved from a departure during 2006 and all the focus is on 2007 – particularly the second quarter – April to June where the best price is now 1.7/1. At the weekend there was a report that the police investigation into the “cash for peerages” row has “yet to find…

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Is Wyre Forest the way to screw Labour and the Tories?

18/9/2006 Editor

How LD stand asides could help bring about a hung parliament At the 2001 general election the Lib Dems stood aside in the Wyre Forest seat to help an independent, Richard Taylor, in his single issue campaign of keeping Kidderminster Hospital open. Taylor over-turned a Labour majority of 7,000 and came in 18,000 ahead. There is little doubt that he was aided in this success by the Liberal Democrats’ decision. In 2005 Taylor held onto the seat with a much…

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Boost for Brown as the conference season begins

17/9/2006 Editor

Tory ICM lead down to just 4% With the annual party conference season getting under way this morning there’s a an ICM poll in the Sunday Mirror that should steady the nerves of Labour and probably help Gordon Brown in his bid to succeed Tony Blair. The shares are with changes on the last ICM poll three weeks ago CON 37 (-3): LAB 33 (+2): LD 21 (-1). From a Labour perspective a four point margin is manageable and does…

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Brown in free-fall on YouGov tracker

16/9/2006 Editor

How events are changing the public’s perceptions The above chart is adapted from one produced by Anthony Wells for his latest report on the YouGov BrandIndex tracker. It is available in full form from his UK Polling report site here. As we’ve featured before each day the pollster asks 625 people to give their positive and negative impressions of a list of leading politicians. The figures reflected in the chart are net ratings, based on a five-day rolling average and…

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