But can Labour MPs risk giving the Tory leader the trophy of the PM’s head With David Cameron enjoying what are by far and away his best ever PMQ reviews in the papers this morning the question has to be asked – how much more of this can Tony Blair take? Could the apparent impossibility of his position force a departure much earlier than next summer? My first reaction on watching the recording was to log onto Betfair to get…
What do we mean by odds, percentages and the overround? To a betting man, the odds are everything. This may appear obvious but believe me it is often ignored in practice. I suspect this is because our grasp of odds, the implied percentages and our assessment of whether they offer value is somewhat intuitive. But try taking a more analytical approach and you may be surprised at what you find. Start with the simple match bet between two contestants of…
ICM solves the great historical polling mystery. On Monday evening there was a vigorous debate on the site after I published an article on how a 3% lead in the ICM poll of October 1993 had been listed in Mori table of all polls as a 15% margin. Some people just did not believe it because the recall of many from that period was of mega Labour leads. This has become highly relevant today with many comparing the current Tory…
What do we think of the internet politics TV channel? Tonight saw the launch of the new internet politics TV channel which has been funded by YouGov founder, Stefan Shakespeare and is being fronted by top-bloggers Iain Dale and Tim Montgomerie of ConservativeHome. The plan is to broadcast for four hours each evening and the channel has recruited a number of bloggers, including me, to provide occasional reports. The channel name comes from the address of the elegant terrace house…
Why isn’t the Chancellor’s price tightening? After this morning’s Populus Poll showing that neither John Reid or Alan Johnson would do better against Cameron than Gordon Brown I finally came to the view that it would take very unusual circumstances indeed for the Chancellor not to succeed Tony Blair. My line until now was that what could derail Brown’s chances would be hard polling evidence that another contender would perform better. That could still happen of course but it is…
But Labour’s deficit is 8% with Brown/Cameron named as leaders The first fully post-conference season poll to be carried out, that for Populus in the Times this morning, has Labour moving to within just one point of the Tories. The shares with changes on the last Populus poll a month ago are: CON 36% (nc): LAB 35% (+3): LD 18% (-2). In the same October survey in 2005 which took place after the Tory conference in Blackpool had been dominating…
The dangers of making historical polling comparisons Like many polling nerds whenever I’ve wanted to check some past polling information I’ve gone to Mori’s “all firms” historical data tables. They are easily accessible and apparently comprehensive – except that Mori does not appear to recognise YouGov. But there’s a huge danger of using this source which I think is affecting current perceptions of Labour’s poll leads before they got into Government – many of the numbers in the Mori table…
Betfair opens new White House 2008 market In just over a year’s time the potential candidates to be the next President will have to reveal their hands. For in order to get on the ballot for the first of the primaries, New Hampshire, formal nomination papers will have to be handed in during November and there’ll be fierce contest in both parties. And for the first time ever in the USA’s 230 year old history prominent women are being talked…