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The Coming Year Throughout 2007, the Conservatives have held a small, but steady, opinion poll lead over Labour, for the first time since 1992. The Liberal Democrats have faltered in opinion polls (although have had two outstanding by-elections), and the minor parties have achieved record levels of support (16% according to the latest Yougov poll). Local elections have proved somewhat different. In these, the Conservatives have established a big lead over Labour (13% in May, and 15% in by-elections since…

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Regular users of the site will know that one of PBC’s most prolific and knowledgeable contributors who has enriched our discussions for nearly two years, Jack W, has been ill. I am please to report that this message was posted this morning. To all Political Betting friends of Jack W. Dad has asked me to pass on his very grateful thanks for all the messages of support he has received over the past three weeks. My father remains very poorly…

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Betfair figures on their biggest political markets The betting exchange, Betfair, has just sent me some information on their top poloitical markets and, perhaps surprisingly, the most activity during 2006 was on the Italian election when Romano Prodi beat Silvano Berlusconi by the narrowest of margins. The total amount traded on the exchange on this election was £1,790,547. In second place was the election for the Liberal Democrat leadership which saw £1,000,382 being traded. All this is small beer compared…

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What if Tories tactically vote on the same scale as Labour supporters? All the projections, like the ones on UK Polling Report and ElectoralCalculus, on how specific poll ratings would translate into Commons seats are based on the notion of a uniform national swing (UNS). These show, broadly that just to be ahead on seats the Tories need a 5% margin on votes nationally and to get a majority then they should be aiming for a 10% lead. But all…

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Where should your money go? It has become almost a New Year custom for one of the bookmakers to open a betting market on which minister will be first to be sacked/resign during that year. For 2007 everything is very much up in the air as we wait for the dramatic announcement from Tony Blair about his departure plans. But is he worth his favourite status? The price looks a bit tight to me. Is it possible that there could…

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Shouldn’t there be separate polls and a separate swing calculation? Whenever a poll comes out we all rush to make the same point that the Tories Cameron’s need to have a 5% margin to win most seats and 10% to secure a majority. This is finally getting through to the markets and now a Labour majority has now taken over from a Tory one as second place in the betting on the outcome of the next election. Yet are we…

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