Lib Dems up and UKIP don’t even register So with the changes on December the main shares are CON 39 (+2): LAB 35 (-1): LD 19 (+1). Like all MORI polls the headline numbers are restricted to the views of those who are certain to vote. As we have discussed here before Mori have a very different approach to ICM and Populus. The pollster does not seek to predict the General Election but rather give a barometer of what current…
While everybody else was focussed on the developments in the honours investigation this was the story that attracted the most interest on CONtinuityIDS yesterday – 46 comments against 31 for Blair. Good to see a sense of proportion there. Meanwhile Tim Montgomerie, who has done a good job developing the site, has asked me to write a piece for Monday. Will I be “the hero of the day?”. Mike Smithson
Would going early be seen as an admission of guilt? The above are a couple of screen shots that I took of Tony Blair on Sunday during his Davos BBC interview when everybody was commenting on how he looked and his whole demeanour. What we know now but did not not know then was that a couple of days beforehand he had had his second interview with the police and he must have been aware of what was likely to…
Big news within the past ten minutes could see changes on the various Labour succession markets. More will follow here as the story devolops. Mike Smithson
Could losing the confidence of the House be what actually does it? One of the great adages on Politicalbetting is that “Nobody ever got rich betting against Teflon Tony”. Certainly he has proved the betting markets wrong time and time and again those who have had faith in his survival gene have made money. Just look at the record:- Getting on for four years ago, in the frenzy over the Hutton Inquiry following David Kelly’s death, Blair became odds on…
Like the Casino decision a warning of the dangers of following the market After yesterday’s sensational news that the betting outsider, Manchester, had won the race for Britain’s new super casino I thought I would look back at the last time when the betting markets got it totally wrong. For next week, no doubt, Lib Dem will be celebrating the first anniversary of the party’s sensational victory over Labour in the Dunfermline by election which took place in the aftermath…
Best to wait until we’ve seen how they’ve done the calculations There’s a poll with, apparently, some sensational figures from Communicate Research in the Independent this morning but judging by Andrew Grice’s accompanying report by and the quoted party shares there is something not quite right. The voting intention shares with changes on December are CON 34% (-2): LAB 29% (-8) LD 21% (+7). So Ming’s party is up half again on the figure it recorded just five weeks ago….
Guest slot on the French Election by Tim Jones It’s a remarkable testament to London’s pulling power, French failings and how European politics are running to catch with the blasting open of the continent’s labour markets. Tonight, London is experiencing a first: an election rally by a French presidential candidate. It makes sense for Nicolas Sarkozy, the official candidate of the ruling UMP conservative coalition, to come looking for votes in a tight race. Out of a much larger number,…