Guest slot: RodCrosby’s by-election trend analysis

Guest slot: RodCrosby’s by-election trend analysis

History shows the challenge facing the Tories RodCrosby has done an analysis of by-elections swings, and the Swing-Back to governments’since the War. Using the Butler swing between Labour and Conservative, the Swing-Back is defined as the difference between the average swing to the Opposition in by-elections and the swing to the Opposition at the subsequent General Election. So, for example the average Butler swing from Labour to the Tories in by-elections 2001-2005 was 7.9%. The swing the Tories obtained in…

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PB.C: “the 82,376th most visited site in the entire world”

PB.C: “the 82,376th most visited site in the entire world”

Somebody has just emailed me to say that according to Alexa.com Politicalbetting is today the “….82,376th most visited site in the entire world“. I have no idea how this is calculated but apparently nine people in every million web users world-wide have been here today….and I thought it was just Andrea! Thanks to everybody for their support. Mike Smithson

…and YouGov brings more good news for the Lib Dems

…and YouGov brings more good news for the Lib Dems

New poll shows Ming’s party continuing to recover The second YouGov poll in the Daily Telegraph in a week has the following shares with comparisons on the poll published on Monday – CON 39 (nc): LAB 33 (+1): LD 18 (+1). It really is rather odd that the paper feels it necessary to commission two polls from the same pollster in less than a week and then to publish it on the morning of the by-election news. What’s the Telegraph…

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Great for Ming – Terrible for Tony and Dave

Great for Ming – Terrible for Tony and Dave

But will Blaenau and Bromley be dismissed as just by-elections? By the tests set in my article just as the polls were closing the overnight by-elections brought terrible news for both Brown/Blair’s Labour and David Cameron’s Tories. They also showed that the Lib Dems are able to pack a huge punch in a Westminster by-election whichever party is defending. The straight politics make Labour’s results marginally, but only marginally, worse than the Tory performance in Bromley. For Brown-Blair’s party threw…

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Who’ll win the by-election spinning war?

Who’ll win the by-election spinning war?

Which party’s done best in “expectation management”? So the polls are about to close, the counts will soon be starting and most normal people will be off to bed without any thought about the events during the day in Gwent and South East London. Now the big question is how the electoral health of the parties will look after the spinners have done their “explaining” and the radio and TV news teams have decided how to present what’s happened. This…

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Bromley – now the money goes on the Tories

Bromley – now the money goes on the Tories

It’s now down to 0.06/1 that Bob Neil will do it for the Conservatives After a long period when the only question about the Bromley betting was why punters were not rushing to pick up what was apparently free money on the Tories things have started to happen. The chart show the implied probability based on best betting prices on the Betfair betting exchange. At 3.55pm the prices were CON 0.06/1: LD 11/1. Mike Smithson

Will PB.C’s competition entrants get the by-elections right?

Will PB.C’s competition entrants get the by-elections right?

“Labour by 1% in BG but heading for 4th place in Bromley” Following the close of the PB.C by-election competition, the contest for the Westminster seat at Blaenau Gwent looks to be neck-and-neck. By averaging out all the entries received we are able to state what the overall view of all those who took part is and it will be interesting to see if their collective wisdom is accurate. These are the figures. Blaenau Gwent – Westminster: LAB 42.7: IND…

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When he goes will Labour lose Tony’s personal vote?

When he goes will Labour lose Tony’s personal vote?

Could 1 in 25 Labour supporters switch if there is no Blair? With Tony Blair reported this morning to be ready to announce the date when he will stand down it is worth asking whether this will be all good for the party in the polls. For a close look at detailed findings from this week’s YouGov poll suggests that the Prime Minister has a small but significant personal vote which will not be there when he is gone. These…

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