It’s rubbish to say the changes hand the advantage over to the Tories This story by Colin Brown in the Independent is typical of some of the coverage that we’ve seen over the weekend on the impact of the boundary changes on the next General Election. Labour goes into the next election still with a massive advantage – it is just that it isn’t quite as big as was before. What’s happened is that there’s now the “official” version of…
The Blurb Who’s going to win the next UK general election? Who’s going to be the next US president? The next president of France? You probably have an opinion, but are you wiling to put money on it? In this unique new book Mike Smithson, the man behind politicalbetting.com, takes a detailed look at the world of political gambling. From the basics of how and where to gamble to the characteristics of the main markets and the forms of betting…
Could Blair’s next interview be “under caution”? The paper goes on to suggest that the Prime Minister could face a third interview. Explaining the events of the past week the papers says “It was the McTernan breakthrough that led to Miss Turner and then Lord Levy being arrested in the past two weeks. In between those arrests Mr Blair was secretly quizzed at No 10. The new developments came after the News of the World revealed that a mole at…
So what’s going to happen in the East End? The East End of London will produce some of the most fascinating contests at the next general election. From the end of the First World War, until very recently, Tower Hamlets, Newham, and Barking & Dagenham were rock solid for Labour, at Parliamentary level. Indeed, from 1950 to 2005, Labour won every Parliamentary contest in these boroughs. That has all changed, and Labour faces real opposition in this part of the…
…meanwhile PBC’s audience continues to rise We’ve had a bit of a shake-up of the faces on our masthead. In come the two leading contenders for the French presidency, Alex Salmond, David Miliband, Barack Obama and Assistant Commissioner Yates. There is no one with Lib Dem link because there is no real betting interest. I had thought of a Cheeky Girl but then thought that the most important person in UK politics today is Assistant Commander Yates. As the table…
What poll news would be the “tipping point” for the Prime Minister? On the first floor of this ordinary looking office block next door to the Job Centre in Bedford is a 100 station calling centre operated by the pollster, ICM. It’s the firm’s largest facility and is where a whole or a large part of the field-work for not just ICM polls takes place. For it might come as a surprise to learn that ICM carries out surveying work…
Lib Dems up and UKIP don’t even register So with the changes on December the main shares are CON 39 (+2): LAB 35 (-1): LD 19 (+1). Like all MORI polls the headline numbers are restricted to the views of those who are certain to vote. As we have discussed here before Mori have a very different approach to ICM and Populus. The pollster does not seek to predict the General Election but rather give a barometer of what current…
While everybody else was focussed on the developments in the honours investigation this was the story that attracted the most interest on CONtinuityIDS yesterday – 46 comments against 31 for Blair. Good to see a sense of proportion there. Meanwhile Tim Montgomerie, who has done a good job developing the site, has asked me to write a piece for Monday. Will I be “the hero of the day?”. Mike Smithson