How long can the Lib Dem leader withstand the media pressure? It’s perhaps an example of the Lib Dem version of “sod’s law” that just as they gather for their spring conference in Harrogate hoping for a publicity boost that we have the latest developments in the cash for honours case and the gagging order that has been taken out against the BBC. For it’s hard enough grabbing media attention as the third party and then they get shoved down…
How the primary timetable will squeeze out all but the front-runners Anybody considering a bet on the US elections should check out this recent article by by Dick Morris, the former advisor to Bill Clinton. For the way the primaries will work next year is going to make it very tough for all but the front-runners in both the Democratic and Republican races to have an impact. Morris points out that on February 5th 2008, just three weeks after the…
After the suggestions on Paul Lindford’s blog and this site about John Denham being a credible candidate for the Labour leadership there is now backing for the idea in today’s Guardian by the former defence minister, Peter Kilfoyle. Denham’s great plus point was that he resigned his post as a Home Office minster over the Iraq War – an issue that continues to hang over the Labour party. On Monday I argued that if by any chance that Denham got…
Is the party ceasing to be a serious threat? While all the focus has been on the Labour succession we have ignored the extraordinary goings on at UKIP – the party which only a few weeks ago looked as though it might pose a threat to Cameron’s Conservatives. Hardly a day goes by without some fresh headlines – the latest being from the Times this morning as reproduced above. The combination of financial issues and the robust response to the…
Could Labour’s “hand-over” not be the foregone conclusion that it appeared? The chart shows the changing price on Gordon Brown for the Labour leadership over the past seven days. Three things have influenced the markets; the ICM poll a week ago showing how Brown’s Labour 13% behind; the Communicate Research poll yesterday; and the move by Clarke and Milburn to open up a debate within the party. The danger for Brown backers is that media pressure combined with concern over…
Will the “Britishness” thing help or hinder Brown’s leadership bid? Watching Gordon Brown launch the latest stage of his of his Britishness agenda on the bulletins last night I could not help but thinking that he is making precisely the same mistakes that Michael Howard made in the run up to the 2005 General Election. Then it will be recalled that the Tory leader stepped up the rhetoric and dog whistles against groups like immigrants and travellers in an effort…
Political Betting Book Launch Party Tuesday 17th April – 3pm to 7pm National Liberal Club, Whitehall Place SW1 OK, we stuffed up. Apparently the House of Commons won’t allow commercial ventures in its hallowed halls – and so launching a book on gambling is right out! So we have decamped to the National Liberal Club. Liberals, it seems, are a lot less fussy. We’ve had to put the date back a day, so please revisit your diaries. I will email…
Are IG On The Run? When IG sportingly created a Politicians’ Popularity market, it doubtless expected to make a little profit from its collaboration with YouGov. The trading is understandably light and one suspects that most of the punting is coming from PB regulars. If so, one has to wonder if IG is making any money at all. This is the fifth week of competition and our fourth success. The other week was a draw. Last week’s main recommendation to…