Can Brown put the polls and the Turnbull attack behind him? After what the Times is calling “Black Tuesday for the Chancellor” Gordon has a chance this afternoon to steady the nerves of his party and put his bid for the leadership beyond doubt. For the budget is one of those great set-piece parliamentary occasions and is the only time during the year when the Chancellor and the leader of the opposition face each other across the chamber. No doubt…
Normal service resumed The call of the Cheltenham Festival came too soon and loud for me to produce a piece last week but I trust that you are now all fully aware that, following on from the minor hiccup the previous week, we took extreme retribution on IG and more than doubled our profits to date with a remarkable 11.3 profit (£113 to a £10 stake). Week ended 8th March 2007 Tony Blair – Buy 1 point at 55.0 Score…
US punters rate his chances for the nomination at nearly 44% With the massive clamp-down by the US authorities against gambling online the Iowa Electronic markets are taking on a greater importance as a way of seeing how American gamblers are viewing the 2008 White House Race. This is a stock exchange that trades in “political futures” and has been operated by the state university for the past fifteen as a means of studying how markets operate. It is now…
What’s the cumulative effect of stories like this? On top of the overnight news of the disastrous ICM poll figures for Brown there is this attack on him this morning in the Financial Times which has the potential to be seriously damaging and to stick. For a former permanent secretary to the Treasury and cabinet secretary to go on the record with an attack like this in the FT is quite unprecedented and at the very least will provide more…
ICM puts Labour 15% behind with Brown The March ICM poll for the Guardian tomorrow gives the Tories their biggest share from the pollster since August 1992 and has the worst figures ever for Labour’s would-be leader, Gordon Brown. The main voting intention shares with changes on the last ICM poll nine days ago are: CON 41% (+1): LAB 31% (+2): LD 18% (-3). But when the named leader question was put – which party would respondents support in a…
Could they be following 2002 and under-estimating Le Pen? Five years ago France saw one of the biggest polling disasters ever in a western democracy when without exception all the firms surveying opinion ahead of the presidential election failed to pick up the support that the National Front’s Jean-Marie Le Pen was getting. This proved to be central because of the way the French election system works. At the first stage there is no limit on the number of candidates…
The above shows the fluctuating betting price on Brown for the Labour leadership over the past few days. As can be seen the sentiment is once again moving to the Chancellor. As this gets closer and Gordon’s election looks even more inevitable then the price will get tighter. In the past month I’ve bet £1100 on Brown at an average 0.255/1. This evening that is looking good. Mike Smithson
Will the Chancellor be bringing on Deborah again? There are two news polls in the papers this morning both of which were carried out by the internet pollster YouGov and both of which give fairly similar main voting shares. Only one of them, however, appears under the YouGov name. The main headline figures in the Sunday Times with changes on the last YouGov survey show CON 38% (+1): LAB 32% (nc): LD 16% (-1). I cannot find a figure for…