How the betting records show that Hitchens was wrong What happened at the Tory conference at Blackpool in October 2005 has become one of those pivotal moments in UK politics and, as we saw, in the programme on Cameron on Channel 4 by Peter Hitchens, a number of myths have developed which don’t fit with the facts. For the above chart shows the implied probabilities based on bets betting odds of the four leading candidates from the start of the…
I’ve just recorded a 30 minute programme on my book, The Political Punter, which will be shown tonight at 7.30 pm on the 18 Doughty Street channel. I had a good discussion with fellow blogger, Iain Dale, who presents the programme. The book itself will be launched at the PB party on April 17th. It can be pre-ordered from here. UPDATE – The programme can be view by clicking this link. Mike Smithson
What behind these big shifts in opinion? I’ve just come across some fascinating data on the Ipsos-Mori website which might prove to be highly significant at the next election. For as the charts show there has been a significant move by public sector workers away from Labour in a relatively short time. If they don’t return that could present a big challenge for Gordon Brown. For after the big expansion of the public sector jobs under Gordon’s management of the…
The ex-home secretary and Miliband step up the rhetoric Just when the Labour succession seemed to be all settled there’s another big move from the one of the chancellor’s most long-standing party opponents – the ex-home secretary, Charles Clarke. In a speech to the Royal Television Society Clarke, according to the Indy report, rejected ideas that there is “”broad consensus” across the party about the leadership succession. “The leadership is not a done deal to be sorted out within our…
These are the figures, just published on the Ipsos-Mori website, of the first national political poll by the firm since January. As is usual the headline figures are restricted to those “certain to vote”. It should be noted that the survey involving 1,983 adults aged 18+ at 176 sampling points across Great Britain was conducted face-to-face on 9-15 March 2007. So the poll is a little bit old and took place before the the last CR, ICM and YouGov surveys….
Tory CR lead slashed as Populus predicts a Scottish Labour collapse The first two of three polls which are expected today have produced good and bad news for Labour. Communicate Research for the Independent has the following shares with comparisons on a month ago CON 35% (-5): LAB 31% (+2): LD 20% (+3). Populus for the Times on May’s Scottish election has SNP 38%: LAB 28%: LD 15%: CON 14% in the constituency section. On the regional list it is…
And will Devolution-Day be the moment they line up behind Brown? Following yesterday dramatic meeting between Ian Paisley and Gerry Adams it is becoming clear that Devolution Day – May 8th 2007 – will play a critical part in Tony Blair’s exit time-table. For the achievement of peace between the communities will become a major element of the Prime Minister’s legacy and provide the backdrop of his historic departure announcement. And according to the Times this morning May 8th will…
This Week – Make Hay from Straw No surprise that we’re leading off this week with man of the moment, Jack Straw. It seems to us he suddenly has everything going for him – campaign leader, the promise of High Office and the opportunity, as a former Foreign Secretary, to pronounce weightily on the Iran crisis. He looks a snip at 76.2. Buy two points. Tony Blair’s rise in the popularity chart shows no sign of stopping. He led us…