Is Blair set for a pre-exit polling renaissance? In the latest BrandIndex figures that are on the YouGov site Tony Blair is enjoying what equal his best figures yet since this data started coming out. Last week we commented that he had moved off the bottom level for the first time ever and the latest data shows that he is now 2.5% off the wooden spoon position. Added to that is the detailed data from the latest YouGov poll reproduced…
Are Sarkozy backers right to be so confident? With just over two and a half weeks to go before the first round of voting in the French Presidential election betting opinion in the UK seems to be hardening behind the Right’s Nicolas Sarkozy. Almost everyday at the moment French journalists are contacting me about the UK betting interest in the fight and for them I have presented the chart showing changing sentiment in the betting in terms of implied probabilities…
Steady as she goes This is an extremely tricky week for punting on the Index. It is the Parliamentary Easter recess, so there is little publicity for any but a few of the main players. Iran is dominating the news and it’s hard to see how that is going to play over the next seven days. Pensions are playing badly for Brown but a safe sell has been pre-empted by a sharp price adjustment by Anthony Wells, who stuck him…
The Times steps up the pressure on the pension row One of the aspects of media behaviour that is hurting Gordon this morning is that newspapers never like to under-exaggerate the impact of their own scoops. So the Times follows it revelations on Saturday about the Chancellor ignoring the advice of civil servants in 1997 about the so-called “£5bn pensions grab” with today’s front-page splash, reproduced here, on the possible impact of its actions on the Labour succession. And as…
Small changes, small losses On the whole, I would sooner be a backer than a layer in IG’s Politicians’ Popularity market. We can pick and choose our targets, time our buys and sells, or just keep our money in the pocket if we don’t fancy the odds. Our amiable adversary, Anthony Wells, has to put up prices whether he wants to or not. He can’t just shrug his shoulders and say, for example, ‘Gordon Brown? Dunno. Too difficult this week.’…
Would the ex-home secretary provide the “heavyweight challenge” Conscious that it is April 1st I have dismissed the Observer story “Blair: I’ll be treading the boards again” suggesting that the PM is scheduled to appear in Arthur Miller’s The Crucible at the Old Vic when he stands down. But what of the Sunday Times report that the former home secretary, Charles Clarke, is ready to stand against Brown in order to ensure that there is a proper contest? According to…
Times wins two year battle to force the Treasury to hand over papers With Labour’s leadership changes only weeks away the main lead in the Times this morning has the potential to cause bother for Brown as his team try to orchestrate a succession without a real challenge. For the “quality” paper that has become NuLab’s most loyal supporter has just won a Freedom of Information act fight to get details of the advice ahead of Gordon’s famous “pensions raid”…
How Will the Liberal Democrats Do on May 3rd? I’m reluctant to comment on this subject, as there are a couple of posters to this site who consider that I display my inherent Conservative bias by refusing to predict anything other than stunning success for the Liberal Democrats in local elections. Nevertheless, it is only right that I do so, given that I have posted about Labour and the Conservatives in the past two weeks. The Liberal Democrats’ performance in…