Sarkozy ahead in the second round polls

Sarkozy ahead in the second round polls

It’s a two thread morning on PBC With such a lot of developments affecting political betting markets going on both in the UK and across the Channel there are two threads this morning. Gordon Brown is on the previous one. The above table, adapted from Wikipedia, shows the results of four telephone surveys that were taken last night after the first round results were known. Interestingly the two pollsters that most under-estimated Royal ahead of yesterday’s election are showing the…

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Is Tony now ready to endorse Gord?

Is Tony now ready to endorse Gord?

Can anything stop the Brown coronation? After David Miliband’s “I’m voting for Brown” statement yesterday the speculation this morning is that Tony Blair is ready to be the next in line to back the Chancellor getting his job. According to Andrew Grice in the Independent the Prime Minister is ready to add his name to the growing list of Labour MPs who say they will support Gordon. It is getting harder now to see how there could be a heavyweight…

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Bet on Royal today and Sarkozy tomorrow

Bet on Royal today and Sarkozy tomorrow

New poll shows the leading candidates are neck and neck Two and a half months ago, just as my book The Political Punter – How to make money betting on politics was being finalised, my publishers suggested that I should add a betting guide to the French Presidential election. This put me into a mild panic because the publication date had then been fixed for just five days before the first round of voting and I was being asked to…

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Some pictures from the PBC party

Some pictures from the PBC party

The light shines on Guido. From left to right here we have David Kendrick, Jonathan, Paul Maggs (Double Carpet) and Guido – a very rare picture! Julian h and Ian Jones with the suited Marcus Wood in the background My daughters Becky and Cayt, me speaking, Peter from Putney and TomThumb Augustus Carp showing people round the National Liberal Club. David Herson (yellow tie) is at the back. Could those in the picture who I have not identified please make…

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Which French pollster has got tomorrow right?

Which French pollster has got tomorrow right?

Does the Le Pen support explain the gap between the firms? The above table has been adapted from the excellent list in Wikipedia and shows the range of opinion polling in the final week before the crucial first round of voting tomorrow. The top two tomorrow evening then go into a run off election on May 6th. So we have a polling range from a 6.5% margin for Sarkorzy over Royal to just 1%. Both cannot be right. In 2002…

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Sean Fear on the local elections

Sean Fear on the local elections

This week he makes his predictions Last week, I explained the background to these local elections. This week, I shall outline my predictions. Scotland is relatively easy to predict. The introduction of PR means that Labour would lose at least 100 council seats, even if their support stayed at its 2003 level. In all likelihood, Labour’s support will be lower than in 2003, and their loss of seats will be around 150. The SNP are likely to gain a similar…

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Blair exit time-table revealed

Blair exit time-table revealed

This has just been published on the The First Post site and it looks as though we might still be arguing over which quarter Blair will cease to be Labour leader. Mike Smithson