Big boost for Lib Dems in latest ICM poll The ICM April survey for the Guardian tomorrow is just out and the headline figures show a reduction in the Tory lead and a three point increase in the Lib Dem share. The totals with changes on last month are: CON 37%(-4): LAB 30% (-1): LD 21% (+3). Of the minor parties both UKIP and the Greens are on 2%. There was also a drop in the Tory lead when voters…
Have PBers been too good for them? IG Index told me this morning that they were closing their BrandIndex spread market on the changing popularity of politicians which has been operation since January. Punters sought to guess whether a selection of politicians would go up or down and “buy” or “sell” accordingly. The ratings were based on YouGov’s daily BrandIndex surveys of thousands of members of its pollution panel. Each week for the site a little group led by Peter…
New poll suggests the Tories could get a majority of 6 seats The April poll by Communicate Research for the Independent this morning has some bleak news for Labour as it prepares for next week’s elections and the coming leadership change. For the survey reports the following with changes on last month – CON 36%(+1): LAB 27%(-4): LD 22%(+2). The detailed data, which helpfully is published this morning as well (other pollsters please note), reports shares for the minor parties…
Mister Chip cruises home in 1st Round Competition Following the drama of the first round of the French Presidential election, the results of the competition on pb.com can now be confirmed. Strictly speaking the contest will await ratification of the election results by the Constitutional Council, but the Interior Ministry figures would have to be very inaccurate to change the outcome of the competition, and this is extremely unlikely to be the case. Given the first round results of Sarkzoy…
It’s a two thread morning on PBC With such a lot of developments affecting political betting markets going on both in the UK and across the Channel there are two threads this morning. Gordon Brown is on the previous one. The above table, adapted from Wikipedia, shows the results of four telephone surveys that were taken last night after the first round results were known. Interestingly the two pollsters that most under-estimated Royal ahead of yesterday’s election are showing the…
Can anything stop the Brown coronation? After David Miliband’s “I’m voting for Brown” statement yesterday the speculation this morning is that Tony Blair is ready to be the next in line to back the Chancellor getting his job. According to Andrew Grice in the Independent the Prime Minister is ready to add his name to the growing list of Labour MPs who say they will support Gordon. It is getting harder now to see how there could be a heavyweight…
The chart shows the price movements on the Betfair market over the past six hours. Royal, who was at 3/1 this morning, is now at 1.95.1. Mike Smithson
New poll shows the leading candidates are neck and neck Two and a half months ago, just as my book The Political Punter – How to make money betting on politics was being finalised, my publishers suggested that I should add a betting guide to the French Presidential election. This put me into a mild panic because the publication date had then been fixed for just five days before the first round of voting and I was being asked to…