Who will Gord choose to be in charge here?

Who will Gord choose to be in charge here?

David Herdson checks out the runners for the Foreign Secretary job? With Blair as prime minister, being foreign secretary has been something of a thankless task for Cook, and especially Straw and Beckett – he’s done most of the work himself. After he stands down, the Foreign Office must look a more attractive post to cabinet ministers than it does now, and perhaps more attractive than the Treasury should Brown make the move from No 11 to No 10. While…

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This is the market that should be on Betfair

This is the market that should be on Betfair

Is there any value in what Ladbrokes are offering? Tomorrow morning I’ve been invited to meet senior bosses at Betfair to discuss political betting issues in a session that PB regular, Nick Palmer MP, helped to arrange. One of the items on my agenda will be the lacklustre markets that the exchange now offers and to suggest that it might like to run something similar to what Ladbrokes are offering on which of the three party leaders will be first…

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Who’ll run this place for Gordon?

Who’ll run this place for Gordon?

Peter the Punter on the betting for the next chancellor Few political markets have offered punters more opportunities than that for the Next Chancellor. The key to it has been the regular price fluctuations. Most of the plausible candidates have varied enormously in price and if you bought high and sold low you may well have engineered an all green position already. Unlike a lot of the markets we bet in, this one is sure to go to the wire….

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What should Gord do about Dave’s TV challenge?

What should Gord do about Dave’s TV challenge?

Is this the first skirmish of the new political era? In a move designed to seize the media initiative Tory leader, David Cameron, has challenged the PM in waiting, Gordon Brown, to a series of TV debates to, as he puts it, “revive interest in politics”. Such debates played a key part in Cameron’s own election as leader in 2005 and if the left-wing challenger, John McDonnell, had found enough MPs to support his bid on Thursday then there would…

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Is Benn about to be boosted by a new poll?

Is Benn about to be boosted by a new poll?

What’s behind these latest market moves? As the chart shows there’s been a big shift to Benn on the deputy leader market in the past few hours. Could it be that a new poll is about to come out that will reinforce Benn’s campaign? I don’t know but this just looks as though someone has some knowledge. Mike Smithson

Sean Fear’s Friday slot

Sean Fear’s Friday slot

Will Labour Lose Birmingham? Birmingham has long since ceased to be a bellwether city. Up until the 1980s, a majority of its MPs were usually returned for the winning party in a general election, and its council switched regularly between Labour and the Conservatives. Yet, from 1983 onwards, Labour consistently outperformed their national performance in the city, and controlled the council without a break from 1984 to 2004. In 1997, they won every seat in the city, apart from ultra-safe…

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Gordon boost for Labour on general election markets

Gordon boost for Labour on general election markets

Is this down to punters anticipating a Brown bounce? The chart shows how punters are assessing the general election chances of the two main parties on the Betfair “overall majority” market. As can be seen there been a movement back to Labour and now the price of the party being returned with a fourth successive majority has tightened to 2.7/1. The hung parliament option remains the most popular with a current price of 1.44/1 and this is where my money…

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Can Alan Johnson prove YouGov wrong?

Can Alan Johnson prove YouGov wrong?

Is the Education secretary worth his favourite status? After getting the most MP nominations for Labour deputy Alan Johnson has become the early favourite and although his price has eased a touch the best that can be had is 2.1/1. Yet the problem Johnson faces is that Labour MPs only represent a third of the electoral college that will decide the job – another third being the party membership at large and the final third being trade unionists who pay…

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