ICM – Blow for Brown as Labour get to within 2%

ICM – Blow for Brown as Labour get to within 2%

Labour deficit moves to 8% when Gordon’s name is mentioned The first full opinion poll since the Brown “victory” in the Labour contest became certain shows some heartening news for the party. For the top-line figures to the hypothetical question of what people would do if there was a general election tomorrow have, with changes on last month CON 34% (-3): LAB 32% (+2): LD 21% (nc) But the Guardian tomorrow will report that the Tories have an 8% lead…

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Is it too early to bet on Brown’s successor?

Is it too early to bet on Brown’s successor?

HenryG reviews the runners and the prices For those still amazed that Brown has been crowned Labour Leader without facing an election, one thing that must be a certainty is that his successor won’t be so privileged. No doubt in the bowels of Westminster some will be plotting their moves to ingratiate themselves with the new leader, others looking to pounce with an alternative agenda should Labour crash at the next election. The current Deputy Leadership contest will no doubt…

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What price on these two for the axe?

What price on these two for the axe?

It looks like there will be a Betfair “Who’s in – who’s out” market? Further to the article yesterday on new Betfair markets it’s now looking likely that we will be able to trade very soon on who will be in and out of Gordon Brown’s first cabinet. And when we do what odds will be available on Ruth Kelly and Patricia Hewitt holding onto their places after their torrid times yesterday in the Commons? The sketch writers in this…

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Should we believe CONhome’s home-made polls?

Should we believe CONhome’s home-made polls?

When is the media going to challenge Montgomerie about his statistics? As far as I can see the otherewse excellent CONhome website is not a member of the British Polling Council – the body that operates the code or practice that all the serious pollsters belong. The body imposes a transparency regime which means that anybody who is interested can work out exactly how the numbers that are produced have been worked out. This was introduced three years ago and…

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Getting more Betfair political markets

Getting more Betfair political markets

How can we deal with the market definition issues? Yesterday I visited the Thames-side headquarters of Betfair to discuss with the managing director, Mark Davis, and senior members of his time a range of issues relating to political markets – a meeting that had been set up as a result of an earlier session with Nick Palmer MP. Although in terms of its overall business the amount traded on political markets is small the firm is keen to operate in…

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Who comes best out of this Mori poll?

Who comes best out of this Mori poll?

Is it best to have your leader not liked or your party? The Ipsos-Mori polling firm has just put up on its website full details of the poll that partly appeared in the Observer yesterday. To me the most interesting new findings are those reproduced above which show vividly the challenges faced by the the Tories and Labour as we enter the new political era. For the Tory brand is still contaminated but Cameron’s party can take some heart from…

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Guest slot on the Irish elections

Guest slot on the Irish elections

David Leyshon looks at the parties and issues Fianna Fail – this is the de Valera party founded in the mid twenties. It won its first election in 1928 (I think). It is the party that has been in power most since. Bertie Ahern is FF. They are republican but havn’t supported the IRA in their various military campaigns. In their modern form they are populist and well organised. It has often occurred to me that New Labour has learned…

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How dangerous a moment is this for Cameron?

How dangerous a moment is this for Cameron?

Is now the time for a trading bet on Labour? Could the opportunistic call on Andrew Marr’s programme by UKIP’S leader, Nigel Farage, for Tory MPs to defect over the grammar school issue be a foretaste of how things might get very tricky for the Tory leadership in the next few months. Of course there are not going to be any defections to UKIP but the Farage interview does underline the challenges that the leadership faces. Until now the conventional…

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