Has the tide turned for John Howard?

Has the tide turned for John Howard?

Guest slot on the Australian election by Steven Phelps There have been some major changes in the polls and in the betting on the coming Australian election since I last reported. First, a quick recap. The next Aussie General Election is expected to be held in October this year. Pollsters quote a Two Party-Preferred (TPP) basis result, which allows for second preferences. The Coalition, led by John Howard, has won the last 4 General Elections, 1996, 1998, 2001 and 2004….

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How the views of Sun readers get magnifed by YouGov

How the views of Sun readers get magnifed by YouGov

Is this why the Lib Dems do so badly with the pollster? One of the great puzzles of modern polling is why the Lib Dems always seem to have the lowest shares with the internet firm, YouGov. Thus the latest 14% total compares with the 21% that ICM was reporting in its latest survey. Clearly there’s something about the methodology of the two firms that causes such a disparity. Thanks to data that was prepared for last Friday’s British Polling…

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Voters believe they’d be better off under Dave

Voters believe they’d be better off under Dave

More findings from Sunday’s YouGov poll released The above is reproduced from the detailed data from the YouGov poll that appeared in the Sunday Times and has just been made available on the pollster’s web-site in line with British Polling Council transparency requirements. I find the response to the “Who would you trust more to raise your and your family’s standard of living?” question very surprising, especially in view of all positive scores that Gordon has had as Chancellor. As…

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Could Brown be tempted by an early election?

Could Brown be tempted by an early election?

Is this the time to pounce? With Cameron continuing to have polling difficulties and the Lib Dems still shedding support could Brown be considering an immediate general election? The standard view is that he’s a notoriously cautious man and that after his long wait he’s not going to risk it by a precipitous election decision. But will there be a better time than now when he has all attraction of novelty going for him? He would have his own mandate…

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Introducing – the Populus guide on how to split the Tories?

Introducing – the Populus guide on how to split the Tories?

Is this the agenda for Brown to make trouble for Cameron? A striking illustration of the challenge facing David Cameron comes from a Populus survey of MPs of all parties in the Times this morning on their views on key social values. A total of 128 MPs were included and were made up of 70 Labour, 39 Tories, 13 Lib Dems and six others. The sample was weighted to reflect the balance of parties within the House. These are some…

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Was this the moment it started to go wrong for Ming?

Was this the moment it started to go wrong for Ming?

How punters reacted to PMQs on Jan 11th 2006? Just five days after Charles Kennedy resigned in January 2006 Ming Campbell took, for the first time as interim leader, his party’s leader’s slot at Prime Minister’s Questions. This was a key moment in his career and, for once, all eyes were on the prospective head of the UK’s third party when he got to his feet for the allocated two questions. Alas Ming came to what should have been a…

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Labour cut Tory YouGov lead to 2%

Labour cut Tory YouGov lead to 2%

A new poll in the Sunday Times has the Tories at 37%, Labour at 35% and the Lib Dems down 14%. This follows a period when because of the transition Labour has squeezed the other parties out of the news. The last YouGov Poll was taken when the Tories were getting a lot of coverage because of the grammar row. It is my theory that the more Cameron is in the news, even if he is being attacked, the better…

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How the BPC conference saw the next election

How the BPC conference saw the next election

Can Labour secure a fourth term? Along with several other pb-ers I spent yesterday at the Central Hall Westminster at the British Polling Council conference on the general election. As well as people from the site the partipants included academics, political journalists, civil servants, representatives from the parties as well as almost every leading figure in the UK polling industry. Lots of ideas and data emerged which will be featured in future posts. Today’s piece is limited by me being…

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