Sean Fear’s Friday Slot

Sean Fear’s Friday Slot

Are Labour Past the Worst ? Prior to May’s local elections, I had anticipated that Labour’s projected share of the national vote would fall below 25%, and that they would clearly finish behind the Liberal Democrats. I had thought that the Liberal Democrats (and some minor parties) would make considerable gains at Labour’s expense. These were reasonable assumptions, given that Labour’s local by-election record in the months leading up to the local elections had been dreadful, the Party’s poll ratings…

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Should Gord have offered Paddy the Foreign Office?

Should Gord have offered Paddy the Foreign Office?

Was Brown being serious or just playing politics? Perhaps the element that shows the level of seriousness that Brown attached to his desire to create “a Government of all the talents” is the job that was actually offered to Paddy Ashdown – Northern Ireland secretary. Important? Yes – but not as big a job as it was now the power sharing government at Stormont is operating properly. Surely given Ashdown’s former role as the international community’s High Representative for Bosnia…

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Is Johnson the certainty that the betting suggests?

Is Johnson the certainty that the betting suggests?

But is there still value in a Harriet Harman bet? If punters have got this right then the Education secretary, Alan Johnson, looks pretty certain to pick up the Labour deputy leader crown when the results are announced this weekend. Our chart, showing prices reflected as implied probabilities, indicates the big swing that there’s been in the past few days. But surprisingly betting has been very light. Only £74,000 has been matched on the Betfair market reflecting the lack of…

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Is being on the right side of the polls enough?

Is being on the right side of the polls enough?

Can Brown be liberal and illiberal at the same time? At the recent British Polling Council conference I got into a debate with a Labour party official about being mis-led by polling findings and that the only thing that mattered was the electoral impact. Thus pursuing a policy that was broadly supported was not necessarily the right thing to do. He quoted the national ID card issue which poll after poll has shown has broad public support and on which…

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Could Ming be Gordon’s first victim?

Could Ming be Gordon’s first victim?

But would a new leader pose a bigger threat to Brown’s ambitions? With the change-over in the Tory leadership being the catalyst for the January 2006 departure of the last Lib Dem leader, Charles Kennedy, could the arrival of a new Labour leader have the same effect on Ming? For the reverberations from Monday’s offer to Ming of ministerial places for Lib Dems are continuing to dominate the political headlines and any change in the line-up of party leaders can…

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The PBC Labour Deputy Leader Competition

The PBC Labour Deputy Leader Competition

Part 1 For each of the six candidates, predict their overall percentage share of the first preference votes to one decimal place (ie for all three sections of the electoral college combined – do not make a prediction for the three individual components). To assist in running the competition, please make your predictions in the following order: • Hilary Benn • Hazel Blears • John Cruddas • Peter Hain • Harriet Harman • Alan Johnson Part 2 Select one candidate…

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Was Paddy Ashdown behind the Guardian story?

Was Paddy Ashdown behind the Guardian story?

Could the ex-LD leader be being courted by Gordon? After a morning of denials, rumours, claim and counter-claims there is a suggestion that the person behind the Guardian story is the former leader, Paddy Ashdown, who was involved in the 1997 linkage between the Lib Dems and Labour. According to the blog by the Daily Mail’s Ben Brogan “Westminster rumour has it that it came from a briefing by Lord Ashdown to Alan Rusbridger, the Guardian editor, which explains the…

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Would accepting this be the end of Ming?

Would accepting this be the end of Ming?

Should the Tories be cheering such a development? Reproduced above is part of the top political story in the Guardian this morning which, if true and implemented, could change the face of British politics. For Ming Campbell and the Lib Dems such an offer could appear to be very tempting and for Brown it would be a way of showing from day one that his approach is going to be vastly different from Tony Blair’s. Yet such an offer if…

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