Has Cameron been following a “Yes Minister” strategy?

Has Cameron been following a “Yes Minister” strategy?

Was the schools row created to keep Gordon off the front pages? Perhaps the most extraordinary feature of this week’s news – Gordon’s first as leader-elect – has been how little coverage there’s been of him and the Labour deputy leadership contest. For the big political story has been about Tory policy on grammar schools and the battles that Cameron has been having with his old guard. Hasn’t the timing of this been a bit too convenient? Could all this…

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Could your “winning” deputy bet be a loser?

Could your “winning” deputy bet be a loser?

Is your wager on deputy PM – not deputy leader? A couple of people have emailed to point out that the earlier version of William Hill’s deputy market was not on who would be deputy leader, but who would become deputy prime minister. At the time, nearly a year ago, the two roles were seen as being almost synonymous and they had not really checked the details. But things could change dramatically following the strong reports today that Brown is…

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Will you bet that the “named leader” question is wrong?

Will you bet that the “named leader” question is wrong?

Why’s Labour deficit 6% bigger when the leaders are mentioned As predicted here on Monday there has been a move back to Labour on the general election betting markets in response to the improving poll situation – seen overnight in the May survey for the Guardian. That Labour are now just 2% behind the Tories has seen some movement to Brown’s party on the betting markets – though there has been very light trading. Labour has tightened from 1.54/1 just…

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ICM – Blow for Brown as Labour get to within 2%

ICM – Blow for Brown as Labour get to within 2%

Labour deficit moves to 8% when Gordon’s name is mentioned The first full opinion poll since the Brown “victory” in the Labour contest became certain shows some heartening news for the party. For the top-line figures to the hypothetical question of what people would do if there was a general election tomorrow have, with changes on last month CON 34% (-3): LAB 32% (+2): LD 21% (nc) But the Guardian tomorrow will report that the Tories have an 8% lead…

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Is it too early to bet on Brown’s successor?

Is it too early to bet on Brown’s successor?

HenryG reviews the runners and the prices For those still amazed that Brown has been crowned Labour Leader without facing an election, one thing that must be a certainty is that his successor won’t be so privileged. No doubt in the bowels of Westminster some will be plotting their moves to ingratiate themselves with the new leader, others looking to pounce with an alternative agenda should Labour crash at the next election. The current Deputy Leadership contest will no doubt…

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What price on these two for the axe?

What price on these two for the axe?

It looks like there will be a Betfair “Who’s in – who’s out” market? Further to the article yesterday on new Betfair markets it’s now looking likely that we will be able to trade very soon on who will be in and out of Gordon Brown’s first cabinet. And when we do what odds will be available on Ruth Kelly and Patricia Hewitt holding onto their places after their torrid times yesterday in the Commons? The sketch writers in this…

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Should we believe CONhome’s home-made polls?

Should we believe CONhome’s home-made polls?

When is the media going to challenge Montgomerie about his statistics? As far as I can see the otherewse excellent CONhome website is not a member of the British Polling Council – the body that operates the code or practice that all the serious pollsters belong. The body imposes a transparency regime which means that anybody who is interested can work out exactly how the numbers that are produced have been worked out. This was introduced three years ago and…

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Getting more Betfair political markets

Getting more Betfair political markets

How can we deal with the market definition issues? Yesterday I visited the Thames-side headquarters of Betfair to discuss with the managing director, Mark Davis, and senior members of his time a range of issues relating to political markets – a meeting that had been set up as a result of an earlier session with Nick Palmer MP. Although in terms of its overall business the amount traded on political markets is small the firm is keen to operate in…

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