Is this a boost for Harman and Hain or not? The above is from the detail of this month’s Populus poll which wasn’t given much attention when it came out. It shows what happened when Populus showed pictures of the six contenders for the Deputy Leadership to 1,006 randomly selected members of the public in a poll. My concern here is not whether Harman is marginally better known than the rest but what is says about public interest in the…
Boost for Palmer as Labour get 0.4% swing in Broxtowe It’s not going to be possible for Sean’s normal Friday slot to go up today but we could not let the day go by without recording formally the results from last night’s council by elections including a swing to Labour in Broxtowe – where PB’s Nick Palmer is the MP. These were by election results:- Broxtowe Borough – Beeston Central (two seats): Lab 728, 677, C 498, 481, Lib Dem…
Will humour be the king when they come face to face? Probably the most eagerly awaited political encounter for years will take place at 12 noon on July 4th when the new Labour leader, Gordon Brown, will face David Cameron at Prime Minister’s Questions for the first time. The format will be familiar – the opposition leader gets a maximum of six questions which he can use when he wants but the Prime Minister always has the last word. How…
Should gamblers be betting on Labour moving back into the lead? On November 22nd 2005, just two weeks before David Cameron was crowned as Tory leader Mori was showing Labour with a 42%-32% lead over the Tories. On December 12th, less than a week after the Tory leadership election result, the pollster had a CON-LAB split of 40%-31%. So Cameron’s Mori “bounce” was a staggering 19%. If the arrival of Gordon as leader and Prime Minister was to have the…
Why doesn’t the media quote betting exchange prices? This piece which went up on the Guardian website an hour or so a go is a typical example of lazy and misleading coverage of political betting. It’s almost become a cliche now to cover a story by looking at the betting odds – but what betting odds? For if the paper had looked at the dynamic betting round-the-clock exchange prices where punters themselves trade with each other a different picture emerges….
Why my money remains on Labour for the general election A good piece by Daniel Finkelstein in the Times this morning sets out lucidly something I have been planing to touch on for a week and which will almost certainly decide the next election. For is the Tory party capable of changing itself so it can become electable again? For while the leadership has made big steps in evolving the way Tories present themselves will the party be able to…
In a big polling turnaround in the race for the White House the black senator from Illinois, Barack Obama, has now edged past Hillary Clinton in a poll on the Democratic nomination. This is only the second time that Obama has enjoyed such a poll lead. In the survey Obama is ahead of Clinton by a single percentage point, 30%-29%, if the contest includes former vice president turned Oscar winner, Al Gore. However if Gore is not there the poll…
The public, but not Tories, support Dave’s grammar school stance The only movement in the June survey by Populus for the Times is a one point decrease in the Tory share bringing the lead over Labour down to just 3%. The shares with changes on last month are: CON 36%(-1): LAB 33% (nc): LD 17% (nc). The fieldwork took place over the weekend and the Tories will probably be relieved that they’ve survived almost intact. Labour might have been hoping…