The first encounter – what do we think?

The first encounter – what do we think?

Who came out best on the constitutional exchanges? This afternoon, a day earlier than expected, we saw the first exchanges between David Cameron and Gordon Brown. The occasion was Brown’s announcement on the constitutional changes and they gave the Tory leader the opening to raise the “English Votes for English Laws” issue as well as an EU referendum. After being out of the limelight for so long the exchanges gave him a platform for two seemingly populist policies which might…

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Is Gordon winning the battle for the centre ground?

Is Gordon winning the battle for the centre ground?

But why’s there so much turbulence amongst LD supporters? This is the updated version of a chart that is featured often here – how declared LD supporters respond to YouGov’s question of whether they would prefer a Brown-led Labour government or a Cameron-led Tory one? This is asked every month of all voters but the chart just focuses on the Lib Dems. Those surveyed are not given any other option and the results are probably a good pointer to potential…

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Should the Tories be relieved by Populus?

Should the Tories be relieved by Populus?

What will the gap settle down at? One of the things you should never do is compare a survey from one pollster with one from another pollster and then try to suggest that there is some trend. Each of the surveys carried out by the five main UK firms use different approaches so that concluding that there has been movement when one from one survey from one firm is different from another from a different firm is simply not valid….

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Could Gordon have a 10% lead with Populus?

Could Gordon have a 10% lead with Populus?

Will Roger be proved right in tomorrow’s poll? The boss of Populus, Andrew Cooper, has just confirmed to me that their monthly survey for the Times has taken place a little earlier this month and should be appearing in the paper tomorrow. Normally fieldwork starts over the first weekend over the month and that would normally have meant next week. The survey was carried out from Friday to Sunday so that the majority of the 1,500 respondents will have been…

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What happens when Cameron’s on the telly again?

What happens when Cameron’s on the telly again?

Could now be the moment to sell Labour? Over the past six months I’ve been trying to make money on the general election spread markets by buying and selling the number of Labour seats. The art is to try to anticipate the polls because they drive punter sentiment. And what drives the polls, of course, is the media and we have just gone through almost two months when Labour has been almost the only story in town. Once the novelty…

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The bombs: Was Gord upstaged by Alex?

The bombs: Was Gord upstaged by Alex?

Whose statement came over better? The strangest part of the latest terror crisis is that there’s no Tony Blair. We’ve got so used to the ex-PM’s approach that to watch a crisis evolve without Blair’s trembling voice is something that we are simply not used to. Just contrast the short piece to camera that Gordon did after his Downing Street meetings with Blair’s performances on similar occasions. As well as the presentational differences between the two men there was no…

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Is this man Labour’s secret Tory mole?

Is this man Labour’s secret Tory mole?

Can Leigh force his party off the middle-ground? This is Edward Leigh – the anti-abortion, anti contraception, anti-genetic research and anti-gay rights campaigner who is calling for his party to shift the policy focus away from the centre ground back to traditional “Tory values”. Perhaps he ought to read this piece by the usually well-informed writer, who also uses the term “Mole” in the First Post. Earlier in the week he wrote on the Davies defection: “..What is becoming increasingly…

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Could the by elections halt the Brown honeymoon?

Could the by elections halt the Brown honeymoon?

Is July a good by election month for the LDs? One of the big bets of the Gordon Brown era has been that “Labour losing a by election” might be the first to happen from a range of options listed by William Hill. Given that almost all the other items in the market – “Raith Rovers winning promotion”, “A full UK withdrawal from Iraq”, “Gordon and Sarah having another child” etc – seem far more remote the 10/1 that was…

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