How will voters judge Labour’s rubbishing of the police?

How will voters judge Labour’s rubbishing of the police?

Could bad polls this week affect the Blair departure date? If ICM and Communicate Research are following their normal schedules then the fieldwork for their January surveys will have been taking place this weekend – just as the war of words between some senior Labour figures and the police reached a new height. So we will only have to wait a couple of days to find out whether what appeared to be a concerted strategy to rubbish the police is…

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Hillary formally joins the race

Hillary formally joins the race

Is it now just between her and Obama? Just five days after the black senator from Illinois, Barack Obama, announced that he was taking the first formal steps to run for the presidency in 2006 Hillary Rodham Clinton has this afternoon made the same move. This is how the Betfair betting exchange prices look for the Democratic nomination: The big question for punters is whether any of the other candidates has a chance against the two high profile front runners?…

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Sean Fear’s Friday slot….on Saturday!

Sean Fear’s Friday slot….on Saturday!

So what’s happening with the Unitary Authorities? The Unitary Authorities were a creation of John Major’s government. They have similar powers to London Boroughs. They combine the functions of County and District councils, in single-tier authorities. There are 46 of them in England, of which 45 will hold elections in May. 25 will hold all-out elections, and 20 will elect by thirds. Most of the seats coming up were last contested in 2003, with some in 2004. In 2003, the…

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Meanwhile….Mori puts Labour ahead

Meanwhile….Mori puts Labour ahead

UPDATED..UPDATED..UPDATED..UPDATED..UPDATED..UPDATED.. But is a Mori lead good news for Brown-Blair? There’s the monthly Ipsos-Mori poll out in the Sun this morning but the only reference to it appears to be in the above extract reproduced from the online editorial page. At the time of writing there does not seem to be a story with the figures. What we have suggests that the main voting figures put Labour ahead. This article will be updated when the full information is available. For…

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Internet rumours prompt big Blair Q1 exit price activity

Internet rumours prompt big Blair Q1 exit price activity

Big price changes following unconfirmed reports about the honours probe The chart shows the way the Blair exit date departure market has moved following internet rumours about more developments in the honours inquiry. This just looks like punters covering their positions while developments, if any, are awaited. UPDATE: BBC news saying that Downing Street political adviser Ruth Turner arrested but later released without charge. Mike Smithson

Could Labour hold a one candidate election?

Could Labour hold a one candidate election?

But what if he didn’t get an overwhelming endorsement? An idea is emerging within the Labour Party that there should be a leadership election this summer – even if Gordon is the only person who manages to get the required 45 MPs to nominate him. The plan is that alongside the Deputy Leadership election that is sure to take place that those with votes should also be asked to to “give their affirmation” to Gordon. It was touched on in…

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What chances of Prime Minister Cameron by December 31st?

What chances of Prime Minister Cameron by December 31st?

Is 50/1 against it happening a good value bet In a new market the bookmaker Stan James is offering 50/1 against this eventuality which puts the assessment of it happening at 2%. All betting is about value. How does your assessment of something happening compare with the betting prices available? If you think the probability of an outcome is better than the betting odds then you have a good value bet. Is this one worth taking? For Cameron to be…

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PBC on Newsnight

PBC on Newsnight

Planned feature on Labour deputy race There should be a piece on betting on the Labour Deputy leadership on BBC2’s Newsnight programme tonight. I’ve just recorded an interview. Mike Smithson