Could Labour be doing less well than the headline figures suggest? If Gordon is thinking about a 2007 general election then every bit of data will be scrutinised to spot the trends so he can be absolutely sure that Labour would be heading for victory with a comfortable majority. The above table has been clipped from the full data from ICM’s Guardian poll this week that had Labour’s margin down a point but still with a healthy 6% lead. What…
Assessing the alternatives to Cameron: 1. Hague Ths is the first in a series of articles in which I will look at the possible alternatives to David Cameron should, for whatever reason the party find itself choosing another leader. This is something that I don’t think is likely to happen but it just might. The potential of several figures will be examined before I reveal the identity of the person I have good reason to believe that Labour most fears….
Can Labour Retain the South? I wrote some months ago that the Conservatives could not win a working majority without significantly increasing their presence in the North of England. Conversely, Labour cannot retain a working majority without holding onto a significant number of seats in London and the South of England, particularly the South East. It was Tony Blair’s particular skill to be able to win over large numbers of affluent Conservative voters in the South, enabling Labour to win…
Now YouGov reports a 9% lead The Telegraphs YouGov survey for July, our this morning, has more good news for Labour and could reinforce the growing calls for Gordon to go to the country early. These are the figures with comparisons on the last poll from the pollster five days ago – CON 32% (-1): LAB 41% (+1): LD 16% (+1) This is the biggest lead by any pollster for Labour since November 2005 before David Cameron became Tory leader.The…
Betfair revive their leader line-up market One of the great betting markets during the last parliament was Betfair’s leader line-up when you had to predict which of those who had been heading their parties two and a half years earlier would still be there on election day. So the options then were Blair, IDS and Kennedy; Blair and IDS; Blair and Kennedy; only Blair; only IDS; only Kennedy and none of them. This became a great place to punt as…
Can Gordon risk his poll leads falling off? Whenever the subject of an early election, perhaps as soon as October, is mentioned people dismiss the idea because of Gordon’s character. The man, they argue, is not a risk taker and why should he chance everything on an early poll. Fine. But is waiting the risky strategy? As we’ve seen with Cameron and the Tories the opinion polls can move very fast and the longer an election is delayed the greater…
Should the Guardian’s pollster have followed the Mori approach? Reproduced above is the detailed finding from the Guardian’s ICM poll that was played big by the paper yesterday and which has sent shock waves throughout the Tory party. It also has been covered extensively in other parts of the media and was the main reason why William Hill opened its “next Tory leader” market. Yet looking at the options that were put respondents were not offered the chance in both…
Can Brown really take much comfort from this? With all the focus over the past five or six days being on the Tory failure in last Thursday’s by elections to make any progress there has been almost no scrutiny of the Labour numbers. Reproduced above are the main party performances in the four by elections that Labour has had to defend since the general election. While not wanting to sound like William Rees-Mogg the votes from Sedgefield last Thursday were…