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Where would Cameron stand if the EU referendum issue was closed down? One of the most brilliant moves by Tony Blair was his amazing U-turn in April 2004 on having a referendum on the EU constitution. For in one short announcement he completely undermined the Tory campaign for the Euro Election seven weeks hence. The demand for a referendum had been Michael Howard’s device of uniting the Tories on the contentious EU issue. At a stroke Blair had taken away…

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Is this the man to take on Boris and Ken? While all the focus has been on Cameron’s poll ratings little attention has been paid to Ming Campbell’s position. Last Friday’s YouGov poll had Lib Dem supporters saying by 54% – 24% that he should be replaced by someone younger. On the list of Ming’s current problems is next May’s London mayoral election and finding a candidate who’ll manage to get noticed amidst all the media focus on Ken and…

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The Internet pollster has him 6% ahead amongst Londoners? Tucked away in the detailed data from YouGov’s July poll for the Daily Telegraph is a question about the mayor of London that I have not seen reported anywhere – how Boris and Ken are doing against each other for the London Mayoralty. For when asked “If you had a vote and had to choose, who would you prefer to see elected as the next Mayor of London, Boris Johnson or…

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Could Labour be doing less well than the headline figures suggest? If Gordon is thinking about a 2007 general election then every bit of data will be scrutinised to spot the trends so he can be absolutely sure that Labour would be heading for victory with a comfortable majority. The above table has been clipped from the full data from ICM’s Guardian poll this week that had Labour’s margin down a point but still with a healthy 6% lead. What…

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Assessing the alternatives to Cameron: 1. Hague Ths is the first in a series of articles in which I will look at the possible alternatives to David Cameron should, for whatever reason the party find itself choosing another leader. This is something that I don’t think is likely to happen but it just might. The potential of several figures will be examined before I reveal the identity of the person I have good reason to believe that Labour most fears….

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Can Labour Retain the South? I wrote some months ago that the Conservatives could not win a working majority without significantly increasing their presence in the North of England. Conversely, Labour cannot retain a working majority without holding onto a significant number of seats in London and the South of England, particularly the South East. It was Tony Blair’s particular skill to be able to win over large numbers of affluent Conservative voters in the South, enabling Labour to win…

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Now YouGov reports a 9% lead The Telegraphs YouGov survey for July, our this morning, has more good news for Labour and could reinforce the growing calls for Gordon to go to the country early. These are the figures with comparisons on the last poll from the pollster five days ago – CON 32% (-1): LAB 41% (+1): LD 16% (+1) This is the biggest lead by any pollster for Labour since November 2005 before David Cameron became Tory leader.The…

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