ICM: 24% of Labour voters could desert over EU referendum

ICM: 24% of Labour voters could desert over EU referendum

How dangerous is Brown’s anti-referendum stance for Labour? A new ICM poll in the Daily Mail this morning suggest that nearly a quarter of all Labour voters could desert if the Brown government continues to refuse to hold a referendum on the planned EU constitutional changes. A total of 82% of those questioned said the revised treaty should be ratified by a referendum and not by parliament. Amongst declared Labour supporters 80% backed the referendum idea with 54% of them…

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Guest slot on the Oz election by Stephen Phelps

Guest slot on the Oz election by Stephen Phelps

Will this man replace John Howard in the autumn? The next Aussie General Election will be the 5th since Coalition leader John Howard became PM in 1996. It’s virtually certain to be held in either late October or in November, with a possibility of early December. Two contrasting trends have emerged in recent weeks:1. the opinion polls have continued to show a slow but gentle improvement in the Coalition’s fortunes, and 2. the betting markets have tightened considerably, moving against…

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Should Deborah advise Gord to gamble on October?

Should Deborah advise Gord to gamble on October?

Is there the evidence to make the toughest call in British politics? This is Deborah Mattinson, joint chief executive of Opinion Leader Research, a pollster for the Labour party for the past two decades and the person who will advise Brown on whether to go for an early general election. If Brown does decide to go in October it will be because Mattinson is convinced not only that Labour cannot lose but that Gord will almost certainly top Tony’s 2005…

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Is there any value on the general election markets?

Is there any value on the general election markets?

Does the chart say it all? It is some time since this chart, showing how punters are assessing Labour and Tory chances of winning most seats has been featured here. It illustrates the changing views of the main parties chances based on the price available on Betfair converted into an implied probability. The steep Brown bounce is there for all to see and the issue is whether the Labour price will harden even more as the party consolidates its poll…

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Sean Fear’s Friday slot

Sean Fear’s Friday slot

Do UKIP and the BNP Really Damage the Conservatives? One problem that David Cameron has to contend with, in contrast to Tony Blair in the 1990s, is that disgruntled Conservatives have somewhere to go. Neither UKIP, nor the BNP could be regarded as a serious challenger for political power, yet each party has shown that it can obtain significant votes, in individual constituencies. In 2005, UKIP won 620,000 votes, and saved 35 deposits, and the BNP won 191,000, and saved…

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Is the Tory tax plan a gift to Gordon?

Is the Tory tax plan a gift to Gordon?

Are we seeing the start of the general election campaign? All the information coming out of the Brown camp before June 27th was that his first target would be to push the Tories from the centre ground by forcing them to the right. If that indeed was the plan then there will be delight within Labour this morning. For the Tory John Redwood policy commission is publishing its findings today and the headline grabbing move is a plan to, as…

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Could Cameron’s primary plan be used to stop Boris?

Could Cameron’s primary plan be used to stop Boris?

Will Labour supporters mess up the Tory election? In what could appear an ill-thought out move during the brash days of Cameron’s leadership the Tories decided that their choice for London mayor should be decided by an open primary in which any London voter could take part. But what sounded like a PR stunt could now be used against the party by its opponents to stop Boris getting on the ballot. For there are reports that Labour supporters are attempting…

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Is Gord’s media honeymoon coming to an end?

Is Gord’s media honeymoon coming to an end?

Why was the Beeb so quick to apologise? Having spent ten years in my early career as an editor with BBC News it strikes me that the quick apology that has been made for parts of the corporation’s coverage of the Tory competition proposals is something of a watershed and might suggest that Brown’s media honeymoon might be running out of steam. The BBC does not usually react so quickly – especially when the initial source of the complaint was…

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