What do we think of the latest move? The Tory health cuts saga has taken a new turn with the party retracting the apology it found itself having to issue when inaccuracies were found on its list of hospitals at risk. The problem with getting specific, as they did yesterday, is that you can pick off each component and find somebody who will say that a particular service is not under threat. So rather than arguing about the big picture…
Are we seeing a change of the political terms of trade? When the chief secretary to the treasury, Andy Burnham (right) accepted an invitation to go on Newsnight on the day John Redwood’s Tory policy review was published he must have thought that his task was going to be easy. Just chuck in a few hand grenades about Cameron being forced to the right and then make the standard attacks on “unfunded Tory tax cuts”. Alas it was not to…
Introducing the special area on Facebook for PBC users Last night a PBC regular contacted me to ask if I’d seen what was on the Facebook website about Politicalbetting. I said I hadn’t but when I checked out the social networking site I was amazed to discover that somebody had established what’s called “The Politicalbetting.com Appreciation Society“. Apparently it’s been going for a few weeks and a couple of dozen people have signed up. What’s really interesting is that the…
How can they stop it looking like the fall of Saigon? The above picture was taken on April 30th 1975 and shows the last American helicopter as it was about to fly the final group of people from the roof of the US embassy to safety. Shortly afterwards the city fell and the United States had lost the Vietnam war. That defeat had a huge impact on US politics which still has consequences today. So what’s going to be the…
You’ll have to wait for our multi Gordon pictures With all the talk of a general election everybody it seems, is waiting for the next polls. Sadly I think we are going to have to hold on for at least a few more days. Suggestions that there could be a poll overnight were not correct. I had thought that fieldwork for the Guardian’s August ICM poll was following its normal pattern with the survey taking place over the weekend for…
How dangerous is Brown’s anti-referendum stance for Labour? A new ICM poll in the Daily Mail this morning suggest that nearly a quarter of all Labour voters could desert if the Brown government continues to refuse to hold a referendum on the planned EU constitutional changes. A total of 82% of those questioned said the revised treaty should be ratified by a referendum and not by parliament. Amongst declared Labour supporters 80% backed the referendum idea with 54% of them…
Will this man replace John Howard in the autumn? The next Aussie General Election will be the 5th since Coalition leader John Howard became PM in 1996. It’s virtually certain to be held in either late October or in November, with a possibility of early December. Two contrasting trends have emerged in recent weeks:1. the opinion polls have continued to show a slow but gentle improvement in the Coalition’s fortunes, and 2. the betting markets have tightened considerably, moving against…
Is there the evidence to make the toughest call in British politics? This is Deborah Mattinson, joint chief executive of Opinion Leader Research, a pollster for the Labour party for the past two decades and the person who will advise Brown on whether to go for an early general election. If Brown does decide to go in October it will be because Mattinson is convinced not only that Labour cannot lose but that Gord will almost certainly top Tony’s 2005…