Is Cameron finally losing his right wing? The above is part of the detailed data from yesterday’s ICM poll in the Guardian and has figures which should be deeply worrying for the Tory leadership. The section I reproduce shows the current voting intentions of those who said they voted for the three main parties in 2005 and the figure that stands out is the proportion of 2005 Tory voters who now say they will switch to UKIP. From a quick…
How does he go with dignity and consistency? The main interest in Ming’s closing speech to the Lib Dem conference in Brighton today will be whether it sounds like a valedictory. Certainly from the briefings that have come out it is starting to look that way. Ming’s problem is how he gets round his previous statements that he would lead the party into the next general elections. If he goes early it would looks as though he had been forced…
Could the polls be so wrong again? Above is a picture of the famous speech by the then Labour leader, Neil Kinnock, at the Sheffield party rally a week before polling day on April 9th 1992. The polls were looking good for the party and it really did seem that the Tory government that had been in office since May 1979 was at last going to be beaten. In the days leading up to the rally two polls from ICM…
Does this make an October election a possibility again? It’s 3am as I write and my first action before starting this piece was to open up my Spreadfair account and buy Labour at the 310 seat level on the general election spread market. The latest Guardian ICM poll is out and shows Labour with their biggest lead from the pollster since September 2005 three months before David Cameron became leader. These are the shares with changes on the last ICM…
Have Hill’s got this one priced right? Bookmakers William Hill have opened a market on whether or not Ming will be leading his party at the general election. The opening prices in the market are: Sir Ming to lead Lib Dems into next General Election – 8/11 NO; Evens YES. I think that Hills have got this wrong. Unless Ming decides voluntarily to step down or he has health problems then I do not think the party has the stomach…
How the papers are reporting the crisis Probably the good news for Brown this morning is that most of the tabloids are looking to other than the Northern Rock crisis for their splash headlines. It’s “The police case falls apart” in the Express; “The Tide turns” in the Mirror and “Kate backed by judge” in the Sun. While Brown himself left yesterday evening’s announcement to his chancellor the Times is reporting that “Kate and Gerry McCann go straight to Gordon…
Is Darling right to give a government guarantee? The news within the past hour that the government is to guarantee the deposits of all savers in Northern Rock will be a massive relief to those who have got their savings tied up in the former building society turned plc. But is it the right decision? Should it be the government’s job to step in to safeguard people from their own investment decisions? Will it be setting precedents for the future?…
Why fight hard where it won’t affect the overall outcome? Just imagine what the impact on the next general election would be if David Cameron said something like this in his leader’s speech at the Tory conference. “As we all know about 25 of our leading target seats are held by the Liberal Democrats and in the normal course of events they would be given special treatment in the run-up and during the campaign itself. Extra resource would go in…