Are the Tories really better placed to win an overall majority than Labour? The chart shows the changing market views on whether it’ll be a Labour majority, Tory majority or a hung parliament with the prices expressed as an implied probability. As can be seen the big change in the past few days has been for the Tories to squeeze ahead of Labour in the market assessment of which of the main parties is likely to secure an overall majority,…
Why Are the Conservatives So Bad at By-Elections? The Conservatives have recovered ground strongly in local elections, in every round of local elections since 1997. Even their opinion poll ratings gradually rose from the disastrous levels of the mid-nineties, after 1997, and rose sharply following David Cameron’s election as Leader. In 2005, they managed to claw back 33 Parliamentary seats, which at least provides a platform for fighting the next election. Yet, in Parliamentary by-elections, their performance has never really…
Anybody who has just read Ben Brogan’s report that Sir Ian Blair might walk should call William Hill about a market that was launched two hours earlier. This is the email I got from the firm “William Hill are offering odds of 6/4 that Sir Ian Blair will cease to be Metropolitan Police Commissioner on or before December 31, 2007 – and 1/ 2 that he will still be in the job on that date. ‘Controversy is raging over whether…
Who’ll come out best in the first test of White House hopefuls? Just four years ago the person that everybody was talking about for the Democratic nomination in the 2004 White House race was the ex-governor of Vermont, Howard Dean. He had built up a hugely effective fundraising machine which surpassed, even, the sums raised by Bill Clinton in his campaigns. In the run up to the first electoral test, the Iowa caucus, he was well ahead in the national…
David Herdson reviews a new Betfair betting market One of the most popular political betting markets over the last couple of years was who would follow Tony Blair as Labour leader, which given Blair’s announcement that it would be during this parliament meant that person would also become the next Prime Minister. Because of the dominant position Gordon Brown held as Blair’s heir apparent, there were two key questions to that market: how likely was it that it would /…
Would Blackpool have been different if a poll had not been suppressed? November 1st, the day Labour was planning for the general election, is probably a good moment to reflect on the amazing events of the past six weeks. And one element that nobody’s really focussed on is the impact of Observer decision not to publish on September 29th an Ipsos-Mori poll showing the Tories 13% behind. For if it had been the splash lead rather than what did appear…
Your chance to put your questions Politicalbetting has invited both the contenders in the Lib Dem leadership battle, Nick Clegg and Chris Huhne to take part in online hustings where users of the site can put their questions and discuss the issues with the contenders. The first, with Chris Huhne, will take place at 11am this Sunday morning and will last for about an hour and a half. A special thread will be opened shortly before this time. The format…
What are the implications of the collapse of the anti-EU party? On June 10th 2004 in the last European elections, UKIP received 2.7 million votes and gained twelve seats in the European Parliament. Their national vote share of just under 17% put them in third place ahead of the Lib Dems and all the talk was of the party doing terrible damage to Michael Howard Conservatives in the ensuing general election. When that vote came, just eleven months later, the…