Will these be the winners in the first White House test?

Will these be the winners in the first White House test?

Will Iowa be a springboard in both nomination races? With just one month and one day to go before the first test of opinion in the 2008 White House race new opinion polls put Barack Obama ahead amongst Democrats and the former governor of Arkansas ahead in the Republican race. Both have gambled heavily on doing well in the Iowa state caucuses which traditionally start the process of the parties selecting their nominees. The social conservative who was born in…

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Why you cannot embargo opinion polls

Why you cannot embargo opinion polls

It must be assumed that market sensitive information will seep out In many ways I was greatly relieved last night that I was not given an advanced copy of the Sky News YouGov poll of Lib Dem party members on the Huhne-Clegg battle. For if I had had it then, like Iain Dale, I would have felt compelled to hang onto to the information until the stated time, 10pm, and not make available information that was highly market sensitive. After…

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Another pollster gives Dave a double digit lead

Another pollster gives Dave a double digit lead

Tory ICM margin moves from 6% to 11% A new poll from ICM for the News of the World shows a Tory lead of 11% and means that four surveys from four separate polling organisation in the past week have recorded significant moves to the Conservatives. Based on what limited information is available the shares are with changes on the last ICM survey a week ago – CON 41% (+4): LAB 30% (-1): LD 19% (-2). Given Labour’s appalling week…

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YouGov has Clegg leading Huhne by 56%-44%

YouGov has Clegg leading Huhne by 56%-44%

Why PBC is breaking the embargo A YouGov poll of 678 Lib Dem party members that will be released later this evening by Sky News has Nick Clegg beating Chris Huhne by 56% to 44% in the membership ballot. But the race could still be close because 52% of those questioned have not voted yet only 52% of those questioned had already voted and 24% said they were undecided. The pollster built up a good reputation for party membership polls…

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Should we now be thinking about the succession?

Should we now be thinking about the succession?

The Saturday columnists make grim reading for Gordon After a week in which the parliamentary highlight was Vince Cable’s joke comparing the Prime minister to Mr. Bean it’s the day for the Saturday columnists to get their teeth into the fluid political situation. By far the most devastating read for Gordon is from Matthew Parris is the Times – an article that would carry even more weight if the writer had not been so consistently hostile to Brown over many…

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Tories take 9% lead with Ipsos-MORI

Tories take 9% lead with Ipsos-MORI

The Lib Dems jump 4 points Ipsos-Mori has just released its latest poll which follows the recent YouGov and ComRes surveys and shows a big increase in the Conservative lead. The shares, with comparisons on the last survey almost a month ago shows CON 41% (+1): LAB 32% (-3): LD 17% (+4). The survey was carried out by phone from November 23rd-27th so would have caught the first part of Labour’s dodgy donations scandal. The Tories will be delighted that…

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Sean Fear’s Friday Slot

Sean Fear’s Friday Slot

The Contest for Luton One of Anthony Wells’ contributors described Luton as “to be frank, a dump.” Having recently moved there, I’d have to say that while that is probably a fair description of what must be the most badly designed town centre, anywhere in the Home Counties, it’s not a fair description of an entire town of nearly 200,000 people. There is a great deal of good private housing around Wardown Park, Stopsley, the Old and New Bedford Roads,…

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Does the latest poll under-state Labour’s plight?

Does the latest poll under-state Labour’s plight?

What if the fieldwork had taken place yesterday? As has been noted often here a key element when assessing a poll is the timing of the field-work. In fast-moving political situations like we’ve seen this week the “when” can play a critical role. So the overnight YouGov poll in today’s Telegraph has to be looked at in terms of when it took place. The figures, as discussed on the previous thread, were with changes on the previous survey from the…

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