We are getting a lot of reports at the moment about sitting Tory MPs announcing that they won’t be seeking re-election at the general election. According to the House of Commons library the total is currently 44 with the total edging up all the time. The current total for all parties is 69. Clearly, many MPs can read the way the polling has gone against the Tories compared with the party’s 12% GB lead at the last election. It doesn’t…
I find the above chart absolutely fascinating particularly when there is a large divergence between the parties. Whille the economy tops for both parties healthcare is so much more important to LAB ones than Tories. It is the reverse with immigration which Tories rate significantly more. Other areas of difference include housing, the environment and Britain leaving the EU. For LAB voters the latter barely registers. You can see how this will underpin the general election campaigns It is important…
Not quite the worst but getting close This chart from the Spectator sets out what is increasingly becoming a problem for Sunak’s government and unless there is an easing ahead of the election the Tory seat losses could be very high indeed. Making historical comparisons is always tricky and I like the approach here – how it impacts on first-time buyers. Sunak will be hoping for something to change between now and election day whenever he decides to call it….
An interesting element of the next election on which Ladbrokes have a market is whether the LDs can win more seats than the SNP. The bookie rates this being the case as being tighter than evens. The party had been the third in number of MPs for many decades until GE2015 at the end of the coalition when its seat total was reduced to single figures. At the same time the SNP, in the aftermath of the IndyRef took 56…
One of the stories lost in the maelstrom of Nicola Sturgeon’s arrest last month was that in the first three months of 2023 the SNP received just £4,000 (yes four thousand pounds) in donations. As The National pointed out ‘The SNP’s money all came from one donor, James Murdoch from Strathearn, and was received on February 8, just a week before Nicola Sturgeon resigned.’ Meanwhile for every one pound the SNP raised Scottish Labour and the Scottish Lib Dems received fifty…
It is possible that a plethora of by election defeats in supposedly safe seats could see Sunak ousted before the next election, we could see three of these defeats later on this month and we could see a fourth soon. As the tweet above indicates Chris Pincher’s behaviour will be severely reprimanded. Majority wise Tamworth is a smaller numerical majority than Selby & Ainsty it would actually need a larger swing than Selby & Ainsty to see the Tories ousted…
Sometimes one question gives you every answer. Are we living through another 1996, or another 1991? The Tories are riven with infighting and far behind in the polls with at most 18 months to go until the election, but some see parallels to John Major’s predicament before he won the 1992 election. That election was won against expectations in large part due to his personal popularity. While ‘The Government’ had deeply negative ratings throughout 1991 and early 1992 he never…
We are now seeing quite a lot of polls with the Tories 20% or more behind Labour and, of course, time is running out. The election is almost certain to take place next year and unless there is a sea-change in public opinion the Tories will be leaving Number 10. One thing that Sunak has that could be crucial is the ability to choose the election date. My guess is that he’ll hope for an early summer election a few…