How “certainty to vote” is driving the polls The above table has been reproduced from the full data set from yesterday’s ICM survey for the News of the World which showed that Labour was 11% behind. This highlights how those surveyed responded when asked how likely, on a scale of 1-10, it was that they would vote. The columns show how supporters of the various parties responded and also included is a breakdown based on what people said they did…
Are the markets over-stating the chances of a Tory overall majority? It is a sobering fact that in only one of the seventeen general elections since the end of the Second World War has a party with a workable commons majority been replaced by another with a workable majority. In 1951, 1979 and 1997 the outgoing governments had ceased to have effective commons majorities. In 1964 and February 1974 the incoming governments had either minuscule majorities or were in a…
Can you post your views below? Mike has asked me to sound out whether we are ready yet for another Party to celebrate the continued success of the Politcalbetting Site. We don’t need much of an excuse, but Mike giving up the day job and concentrating full time on running the world’s greatest web site seems plenty to me. Last year’s Party/Book Launch was a great success, partly due to the excellent location – The National Liberal Club. Presumably nobody…
Will Iowa be a springboard in both nomination races? With just one month and one day to go before the first test of opinion in the 2008 White House race new opinion polls put Barack Obama ahead amongst Democrats and the former governor of Arkansas ahead in the Republican race. Both have gambled heavily on doing well in the Iowa state caucuses which traditionally start the process of the parties selecting their nominees. The social conservative who was born in…
It must be assumed that market sensitive information will seep out In many ways I was greatly relieved last night that I was not given an advanced copy of the Sky News YouGov poll of Lib Dem party members on the Huhne-Clegg battle. For if I had had it then, like Iain Dale, I would have felt compelled to hang onto to the information until the stated time, 10pm, and not make available information that was highly market sensitive. After…
Tory ICM margin moves from 6% to 11% A new poll from ICM for the News of the World shows a Tory lead of 11% and means that four surveys from four separate polling organisation in the past week have recorded significant moves to the Conservatives. Based on what limited information is available the shares are with changes on the last ICM survey a week ago – CON 41% (+4): LAB 30% (-1): LD 19% (-2). Given Labour’s appalling week…
Why PBC is breaking the embargo A YouGov poll of 678 Lib Dem party members that will be released later this evening by Sky News has Nick Clegg beating Chris Huhne by 56% to 44% in the membership ballot. But the race could still be close because 52% of those questioned have not voted yet only 52% of those questioned had already voted and 24% said they were undecided. The pollster built up a good reputation for party membership polls…
The Saturday columnists make grim reading for Gordon After a week in which the parliamentary highlight was Vince Cable’s joke comparing the Prime minister to Mr. Bean it’s the day for the Saturday columnists to get their teeth into the fluid political situation. By far the most devastating read for Gordon is from Matthew Parris is the Times – an article that would carry even more weight if the writer had not been so consistently hostile to Brown over many…