Sean Fear’s Friday Slot

Sean Fear’s Friday Slot

Was Gordon Brown Right to Back Out? It’s hard to imagine that two months ago, Labour were leading the Conservatives by 10-13% in opinion polls, on the back of a highly successful party conference, and momentum for an early election appeared unstoppable. Yet, instead of calling an election at, or straight after, his party conference, Gordon Brown waited for the Conservative Party to have their conference, enabling them to regain the initiative. Since then of course, very little has gone…

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Were these the front pages Gord wanted to avoid?

Were these the front pages Gord wanted to avoid?

But has he upset both Euro-sceptics and Euro-philes at the same time? Given their hostility to all things EU the front pages of the Sun and the Express are predictable this morning – the day after Brown’s Lisbon fiasco. His strategy is inexplicable – on the one hand he has further angered the the EU-sceptics by signing the document; on the other hand the manner of his actions yesterday by deliberately arriving late to avoid the main signing ceremony is…

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Lib Dem Leadership Prediction Competition

Lib Dem Leadership Prediction Competition

The competition that moved the markets in 2006 So who will be the successor to Ming? With voting closing on Saturday, we’ll know the identity of the new leader by early next week – but how good are you at predicting the outcome? Simply predict who the new leader will be and their percentage share of the valid votes to up to two decimal places. Scoring: your score will be the difference between your prediction and the actual result for…

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Was this the moment Gord lost the next election?

Was this the moment Gord lost the next election?

It’s all change for my spread betting positions Having just read many comments in the previous thread, watched on TV the excruciating embarrassment of Gord’s late arrival in Lisbon for his solo treaty signing, and had a half hour phone conversation with a long-standing friend who is a Labour loyalist and former constituency chair the question arises as to whether today might be a turning point. For the message that’s coming through loud and clear is that Downing Street’s strategy…

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Is Hillary’s machine as good as it’s made out to be?

Is Hillary’s machine as good as it’s made out to be?

Will the Obama drug smear rebound on Clinton? There’s one dominant theme that emerges whenever Hillary’s chances in the Democratic race are being assessed – the so-called “legendary brilliance of the Clinton machine”. But is it really up to that much? Are we being sold a line in order that nothing should impede the view that Hillary’s eventual success is inevitable? Certainly the events of the past day or so do little to inspire confidence. The big news items in…

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Will the “Bloomberg Brown Review Index” cause Gord trouble?

Will the “Bloomberg Brown Review Index” cause Gord trouble?

Can review announcements continue at a weekly rate in 2008? The above story from the Westminster correspondent of the Bloomberg news agency focuses attention on a growing practice of the Brown government that could develop into an issue – the practice whereby almost any challenge that they face is met by the announcement of a review. The journalist, Robert Hutton, is now keeping a tally which, as of this week, has reached 31 since Gord and his gang took over…

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Is Labour being flattered by non-voters?

Is Labour being flattered by non-voters?

How a 1% Labour lead in the economy becomes a 4% deficit Much of yesterday’s coverage of the December Populus poll in the Times focuses on the fact that Brown-Balls’ party still has a lead on the economy even if only of just one per cent Yet were we getting a proper picture in the papers because, as has been noted here before, findings like this include the views of those who have little or no intention of voting –…

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Is now the time to buy Labour again?

Is now the time to buy Labour again?

CON 42%: (+1), LAB 35% (+3), LD 14% (-3) The massive face-to-face monthly survey by Ipsos-MORI involving a sample of 1859 has just been published. The changes above show the variations on the the firm’s November telephone poll where the sample was only about half the size. The firm’s latest Political Monitor shows the Conservatives with a 7-point lead and also that David Cameron has the best net satisfaction rating (+6) of any Conservative leader since John Major won the…

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