Why Labour under Brown is certain to lose

Why Labour under Brown is certain to lose

Did the controversial “named leader” question get it right all along? The above table is reproduced from UK Polling Report’s record of the controversial “named leader” questions that several pollsters asked during the period between David Cameron’s election as Tory leader in December 2005 and Gordon’s arrival in June 2007. These findings proved to be highly controversial and every time I featured them on the site they came under fierce attack. For what was being presented was dynamite. For on…

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Is Hillary set to join Gord in the losers’ club?

Is Hillary set to join Gord in the losers’ club?

Are we witnessing a dramatic change of fortunes for Clinton? There’s little doubt that one of the most spectacular changes of fortune ever in UK politics was the dramatic move against Gordon Brown in the first week in October. From a situation where a big general election victory looked certain Brown suddenly started to look like a loser and since then it has got progressively worse. The question for those betting on the 2008 White House Race is whether the…

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Has Cameron set a trap for the new Lib Dem leader?

Has Cameron set a trap for the new Lib Dem leader?

Should the LDs now work with the 45% Tories to fight Brown? On the day of the best Tory poll figures for 15 years and only two days before the Lib Dems get their new leader there’s an audacious move by Cameron which could prove problematic for Nick Clegg or Chris Huhne. For in an initiative calculated to put the new leader on the spot immediately Cameron has offered to join forces with the third party to forge a “new…

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YouGov shows Tories heading for a 96 seat majority

YouGov shows Tories heading for a 96 seat majority

Tories move to 45% share with the internet pollster A staggering poll by YouGov for tomorrow’s Sunday Times puts the Tories 13 points ahead of Labour on 45% – a level that the party has not been at in decades and would mean a substantial majority at the general election. The shares are with comparisons on the last YouGov poll nine days ago are: CON 45% (+2): LAB 32% (nc): LD 14% (nc) Putting these shares into the Anthony Wells…

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Can the Tories break Labour by breaking Brown?

Can the Tories break Labour by breaking Brown?

Is the opposition right to focus on the man and not policies? It’s becoming apparent, as the 2007 political year comes to a close, that both the Tories and Lib Dems have managed to make the big issue not a particular policy or strategic direction but Gordon Brown himself. Almost as though they were acting in tandem both David Cameron and Lib Dem stand-in, Vince Cable, have launched lob after lob against Gordon’s personality and judging by the way events…

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Sean Fear’s Friday Slot

Sean Fear’s Friday Slot

Was Gordon Brown Right to Back Out? It’s hard to imagine that two months ago, Labour were leading the Conservatives by 10-13% in opinion polls, on the back of a highly successful party conference, and momentum for an early election appeared unstoppable. Yet, instead of calling an election at, or straight after, his party conference, Gordon Brown waited for the Conservative Party to have their conference, enabling them to regain the initiative. Since then of course, very little has gone…

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Were these the front pages Gord wanted to avoid?

Were these the front pages Gord wanted to avoid?

But has he upset both Euro-sceptics and Euro-philes at the same time? Given their hostility to all things EU the front pages of the Sun and the Express are predictable this morning – the day after Brown’s Lisbon fiasco. His strategy is inexplicable – on the one hand he has further angered the the EU-sceptics by signing the document; on the other hand the manner of his actions yesterday by deliberately arriving late to avoid the main signing ceremony is…

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Lib Dem Leadership Prediction Competition

Lib Dem Leadership Prediction Competition

The competition that moved the markets in 2006 So who will be the successor to Ming? With voting closing on Saturday, we’ll know the identity of the new leader by early next week – but how good are you at predicting the outcome? Simply predict who the new leader will be and their percentage share of the valid votes to up to two decimal places. Scoring: your score will be the difference between your prediction and the actual result for…

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