With 12 days to go to Iowa – what are Obama’s chances? Cast your mind back to May 26th 2005. Tony Blair was just completing the third week of Labour’s third term, Charles Kennedy was still Lib Dem leader and Michael Howard had announced that he was standing down with David Davis the hot favourite to succeed him. The main thread that morning was about a young black senator from Illinois who was relatively unknown on this side of the…
As the polls converge so do the prices At the top there is a collage of some of the main figures in the race to become the Republican nominee for the 2008 White House race – a contest that at one stage looked relatively simple but is getting more complicated by the day. The chart shows the Betfair prices converted into an implied probability to reflect the changes in punter interest over the past year. The only one thing that…
So it’s only five Grumpy Gordons There’s been a dramatic improvement in Labour’s polling position according to the Guardian’s December poll which is due to be published tomorrow. The shares are with changes on the last survey from the pollster CON 39% (-2): LAB 34% (+4) LD 18% (-1). For both the Tories and the Lib Dems under their new leader these figures will be enormously disappointing. Nick Clegg must have been hoping for some sort of boost following his…
By Election Round Up Over the past three months, there have been 29 by-elections in which all three main parties took part. 19 were in seats last contested in 2007, 7 in seats last contested in 2006, (mostly in London), 2 in 2005, and 1 in 2004. In all contests, the Conservatives made a net gain of 3 seats, Labour a net loss of 1 seat, the Liberal Democrats a net gain of 1 seat, and Others a net loss…
Is there any way that Brown can turn this round? Reproduced above is the December YouGov survey for the Daily Telegraph which took place from Monday to Wednesday when the Lib Dems were getting a lot of coverage over their leadership election. The chart shows comparisons with Daily Telegraph polls not the last published survey by the internet pollster which was in the Sunday Times five days ago. That produces the following changes CON 43% (-2): LAB 31% (-1): LD…
Are you still lumbered with one of their “Deputy PM” bets? Seven months ago I wrote here about confusion at William Hill over their market on who was going to replace John Prescott. For the earlier version of William Hill’s deputy market was not on who would be deputy leader, but who would become deputy prime minister. At the time when the betting started, after the 2005 general election, the two roles were seen as being almost synonymous and many…
How are you going to do in our annual competition? On January 1st 2007 we opened our annual competition for the Political Forecaster of the Year. The questions that were asked then are set out below. With Nick Clegg safely ensconced as Lib Dem leader nearly all the issues have been resolved – the only thing that could still spring a surprise could be final Guardian ICM survey of 2007. To view the entries please click here – which takes…
Will Clegg’s statement be a vote winner or a vote loser? If Nick Clegg had been running for the president of the US then his comments today about not believing in God could have been the defining moment of the campaign. Just a fortnight ago in one of the Republican debates a questioner pushed forward a copy of the bible and asked whether each of the contenders believed it to be the truth. All of them, including the thrice-married Giuliani,…