Is there any way that Brown can turn this round?
Reproduced above is the December YouGov survey for the Daily Telegraph which took place from Monday to Wednesday when the Lib Dems were getting a lot of coverage over their leadership election. The chart shows comparisons with Daily Telegraph polls not the last published survey by the internet pollster which was in the Sunday Times five days ago. That produces the following changes CON 43% (-2): LAB 31% (-1): LD 16% (+2).
Putting the vote shares into the Anthony Wells seat calculator and you get a house of commons that looks likes this CON 359: LAB 238: LD 24 OTH 29 – an overall majority for Cameron’s party of 68 seats.
Like many on the site, no doubt, I watched last night’s BBC-2 documentary by
Tom Mangold Michael Cockerell, on David Cameron which provided a timely reminder of how good things were for Labour at the end of September. Brown was confident and totally in command and things looked pretty bleak for the Tories as they gathered for their conference. Quite how all that fell apart for Labour must be one of the most amazing political stories of modern times.
Although the change in the polls over the past 10 weeks has been breath-taking punters remain sceptical about the possibility of a Tory majority government
A hung parliament is still the favourite outcome on Betfair and on the spreads, where punters trade the number of seats like stocks and shares, the latest Tory range is 289-303 seats – with a buy level being 22 seats fewer than that required for an overall majority. Normally the spread range is fairly close to what the seat predictors are suggesting – now there is a big disconnect.
If the polls continue to put the Tories in this range then there might be some good betting value here.
Still to come this month are the December surveys by ICM for the Guardian and ComRes for the Independent.
The received opinion that governments recover as we get closer to general elections is challenged by a lengthy guest slot contribution that I have received which will be published here during the holiday period. Watch this space.