By Election Round Up Over the past three months, there have been 29 by-elections in which all three main parties took part. 19 were in seats last contested in 2007, 7 in seats last contested in 2006, (mostly in London), 2 in 2005, and 1 in 2004. In all contests, the Conservatives made a net gain of 3 seats, Labour a net loss of 1 seat, the Liberal Democrats a net gain of 1 seat, and Others a net loss…
Is there any way that Brown can turn this round? Reproduced above is the December YouGov survey for the Daily Telegraph which took place from Monday to Wednesday when the Lib Dems were getting a lot of coverage over their leadership election. The chart shows comparisons with Daily Telegraph polls not the last published survey by the internet pollster which was in the Sunday Times five days ago. That produces the following changes CON 43% (-2): LAB 31% (-1): LD…
Are you still lumbered with one of their “Deputy PM” bets? Seven months ago I wrote here about confusion at William Hill over their market on who was going to replace John Prescott. For the earlier version of William Hill’s deputy market was not on who would be deputy leader, but who would become deputy prime minister. At the time when the betting started, after the 2005 general election, the two roles were seen as being almost synonymous and many…
How are you going to do in our annual competition? On January 1st 2007 we opened our annual competition for the Political Forecaster of the Year. The questions that were asked then are set out below. With Nick Clegg safely ensconced as Lib Dem leader nearly all the issues have been resolved – the only thing that could still spring a surprise could be final Guardian ICM survey of 2007. To view the entries please click here – which takes…
Will Clegg’s statement be a vote winner or a vote loser? If Nick Clegg had been running for the president of the US then his comments today about not believing in God could have been the defining moment of the campaign. Just a fortnight ago in one of the Republican debates a questioner pushed forward a copy of the bible and asked whether each of the contenders believed it to be the truth. All of them, including the thrice-married Giuliani,…
Why is a “senior member of the party” reluctant to pay? Followers of the Lib Dem leadership threads over the past couple of months will have become familiar with contributions by “The Observer” who has been a passionate, and at times aggressive, backer of Nick Clegg. He is also, apparently a “senior member of the party”. In a post on November 5th at 8.38pm he asserted that Huhne’s vote share would not be as big as 2006 and issued a…
Who’ll be most relieved that it’s Nick? Wow – what a close margin? Who could have predicted that? Only five weeks ago I entered into a wager with Observer for £500 at even money that Huhne would get more than the 42% that he achieved in 2006. Well that bet is won. (Observer – I do appreciate that we need to find a way for you to pay me without you revealing your identity). Even when I entered into that…
But how will either cope with the Vince Cable comparison ? With the result of the Lib Dem leadership contest due to be announced at 2.30 pm the average entry in our PB competition gave it to the party’s home affairs spokesman with 53.71% of the vote. This is quite close to the 56% predicted by the only media-sponsored party membership poll of the campaign – that by YouGov for SkyNews. One figure that might be interesting is the number…