A look ahead to the year in politics Later today on PBC: the Iowa caucuses It can often be foolhardy to predict the year ahead in public, as one’s predictions can often look ridiculous by the end of the year – or if you’re lucky, extraordinarily prescient. With that in mind, a few thoughts on 2008, for the UK, USA, and the rest of the world. UK My “long view” is that May 2010 will be the election date, and…
The Lib Dem’s Paddick is down at just 7% A new poll by YouGov for for ITV’s London Tonight puts Ken on 45 per cent, just one point above Boris with the Lib-Dem candidate Brian Paddick trailing on seven per cent in what looks set to be the biggest domestic battle during 2008. If the Tories managed to unseat Livingston it would be a major political upset and a big set-back for Brown. It will no doubt be recalled that…
Have the betting markets got it about right? On the first working day of the year I thought it might be useful, as a point of reference to record the latest UK general election betting prices. These seem to suggest that punters believe that the Conservatives will be the top party but will be someway short of an overall majority. We last recorded the prices like this as a matter of record on June 27th 2007 – the day that…
Will you be staying up for the big political betting night? With the very first test of public opinion in the 2008 White House race due to take place tomorrow night the big question is how many Iowans are going to bother to turn out to attend the caucus meetings that could set the tone for the whole process of choosing the Democratic and GOP candidates. The critical element is that so few people are likely to be involved. For…
How well did you do at forecasting the political scene last year? The final results for the 2007 PBC prediction competition have now been number-crunched – the top 20 are shown above, while the full results are available via the link below. Congratulations to the leading forecasters and thanks to everyone who took part. PBC 2007 results detail 2007 – a brief look back The 2007 political year has now been put to bed, in many ways a momentous year…
Will the state’s main paper be the top pollster again? In the 2004 race for the Democratic nomination the final poll for the state’s main newspaper, the Des Moines Register, came closest to predicting what was a sensational result – the defeat of the early front runner and heavy odds-on favourite, Howard Dean. After his defeat there the former governor of Vermont never really recovered and the winner of the state caucuses, John Kerry, went on to take the nomination….
Your chance to help predict the next 12 months Instead of our usual prediction competition for 2008 we have “The Big PBC Prediction” where everybody is asked to give their views on a range of political and associated economic events. Please fill in the questions below and let us see if our combined wisdom can get the next year right. Also please can you write comments in the normal way on the thread below and not on the individual poll…
Is anybody bold enough to call the Iowa caucuses? Leaving aside the probability of a very major shock then the next resident of the White House will be one of the seven contenders featured above. And for each next Thursday night could be crucial. For one or two victory in their party’s caucuses is absolutely central if they are to stay in the race. For others a convincing performance could be a knock-out blow to other challengers. But how can…