Is McCain becoming unstoppable? With the next big battle in the GOP race taking place in the Michigan primary tomorrow new national polls have reported leads of 8% and 15% for John McCain – the 71 year old who in the run up to Christmas looked as though he was finished. He’s now the 1.38/1 favourite to take the prize. Tomorrow all eyes will be focussed on Michigan which is really the last big chance for Mitt Romney to make…
Has Dave dumped his “nuclear a last resort” commitment? Watching Andrew Marr interviewing David Cameron this morning I was struck at the ease in which the Tory leader has been able to change the party’s stance on nuclear power. From a position when he became leader of regarding this as a last resort he’s managed to move it so that the only issue is whether or not there is a taxpayer subsidy. Marr pressed him a couple of times but…
Two more polls show increases in the Labour deficit A week ago Gord returned from his holiday and went on the publicity offensive with a series of set-piece interviews and high profile announcements. For days there was hardly a TV bulletin without him featuring. This wasn’t a re-launch, we were assured, but it had all the makings of one. Brown was trying to get the initiative back and to build on the improvements in Labour polling fortunes that we had…
Making this work effectively For some time now Mike has reserved a small corner of Politicalbetting.com for recorded wagers. The idea is that if two posters can agree terms between themselves, they can actually have their bet formalized to the extent that it is recorded here for posterity and for others to view and comment on. The advantages are fairly obvious. The record makes it clear what the terms are and we can all share in the fun of applauding…
But why is this against the trend of other recent surveys? A new poll by Ipsos-MORI for the Sun today goes completely against the run of other recent surveys and reports that Cameron’s Tories now have a 10% lead. The following are the shares with changes on the last survey from the pollster before Christmas – CON 42(nc): LAB 32(-3): LD 15(+1) After a period when Populus, YouGov and ICM have all reported Labour deficits of within 5% today’s survey…
The Far Right in the Midlands Last night, Labour held a seat which the Conservatives had expected to gain, at Ibstock and Heather, on North West Leicestershire District Council. The Conservatives had won two out of three seats in May 2007, in what had formerly been a very safe Labour ward. What seems to have prevented them winning the third seat was a very strong performance from the BNP, who contested the seat for the first time, and won second…
Is the new leadership turning the party around? I’ve long argued that the battle for the next election is about the centre ground and, in particular whether Labour can recover many of the votes that switched to the Lib Dems in 2005 and how far Cameron’s Tories can go in attracting and retaining supporters of Clegg’s party. Reproduced above is from the full dataset of this month’s Populus poll and shows how support split based on what respondents said they…
How the prices changed wildly during the New Hampshire count This is a chart that appeared on the Betfair site on Wednesday morning and shows the violent changes in the betting price on Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire as the news came in. The most stunning part is the sudden surge in her price to 250/1 as some early reports suggested that the polls were right and that the former First Lady was about to come in second. This records…