Is Gord’s party really doing better than in 2005? The results of Ipsos-Mori January face to face survey of more than 2000 people are just out and give Labour a one point lead – a huge change on the last survey by the pollster just three weeks ago. Unlike this survey the earlier poll was by phone. These are the latest shares with comparisons on the earlier survey CON 37% (-5): LAB 38% (+6): LD 16% (+1). The fieldwork took…
Will the Republicans benefit by deciding first? The final clause of the concluding paragraph of the main leader in the Independent this morning reflects a sentiment that I guess a lot of site visitors totally agree with. Looking forward to next week the paper notes: On Tuesday, these two thrilling contests go nationwide. We hanker after a McCain-Obama match in November, but our more immediate interest – and surely that of US voters – is in any result that keeps…
What does Labour do now the Tories are not seen “the nasty party”? The front page of this morning’s Guardian is dominated by a report that groups of Labour modernisers, including cabinet minsters, are planning to tell Brown to offer a more radical reform programme to help beat off the Tory threat in the centre ground. Linked to a paper from the Progress thinktank the group is arguing that the political landscape has changed, that the opposition is perceived differently…
Could this undermine union support? With just five days to go to Super Tuesday some video tapes of Hillary in her role as a director of Wal-Mart in the late 80s and early 90s have “emerged” and are being given prominent coverage by ABC News. Funny that the tapes being discovered now – anybody would think someone was planning a hatchet job. Hillary’s problem is that the company has built up a reputation for being fiercely anti-union going to great…
How will the GOP’s likely choice affect the Democratic race? With the Republican looking set to select John McCain as their nominee for November’s election there will be increasing focus on the Obama-Clinton battle? Will we get a clear picture after next Tuesday’s mass of primaries and caucuses or could this be spun out over many months? David Broder of the Washington Post looks at the dynamics this morning and suggests that the longer the Democrats take to decide the…
The above are the latest head to head numbers from the excellent Real Clear Politics site and show what happens when John McCain is put against either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. As can be seen the 71 year old beats both of them on the RCP average which is updated daily. The latest figures are very much affected by the Rasmussen numbers showing the GOP man with a substantial margin over the two Democratic party possibilities. In its previous…
Will Labour be able to use the approach of this 2005 election broadcast? Click on the link above and see how Labour used one of its final election TV slots in the days before the last general election. It’s effective and follows a well-established tested formula that helped underpin the 1997, 2001 and 2005 victories. Looking at it through today eyes, though, it appears outdated. Will this work again? How long will the demonisation of the Tories in this form…
Newsweek raises the age question After his sensational victory in the Florida GOP primary overnight John McCain has become an even more firm odds-on favourite to take the nomination. By 0430 GMT the Betfair price in response to the result had tightened to 0.15/1 which given the fact the the market won’t be settled until September looks crazy. You only bet at such odds-on prices when the market will be resolved in a few days – to lock up your…