Mayoral poll based on just 240 voters

Mayoral poll based on just 240 voters

How much can you trust a survey with such a small sample? The detailed data on YouGov’s London mayoral survey is out today and there are two things to highlight – the survey took place AFTER the controversial Channel 4 Dispatches programme last Monday but the size of the sample was just about the smallest that I can recall from the firm. In their normal national voting intention surveys YouGov generally involve about 2000 people. The figure for Saturday’s Daily…

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How damaging is Conway to Cameron?

How damaging is Conway to Cameron?

Will there be few tears shed for David Davis’s rounder-upper? This lunchtime’s news that Tory MP Derek Conway faces a 10-day Commons suspension after the standards watchdog said he paid his son too much from parliamentary allowances. Freddie Conway, received a salary as a researcher while he was studying at Newcastle University. The only problem was, according to the report “.. no records appear to exist of either actual work that Freddie did for his father, or of the work…

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Is this now a clash of the Democratic Dynasties?

Is this now a clash of the Democratic Dynasties?

How will Kennedy’s endorsement affect the race? The excellent US Politico site is reporting that a major battle has been going on between the Obama and Clinton camps over plans by Ted Kennedy to appear on a platform with Barack Obama today and give his blessing to the Illinois senator in the fight for the Democratic nomination. The importance of the move can be measured by the efforts that the Clinton campaign has made to try to stop Kennedy making…

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Friday’s party pictures….by Roger

Friday’s party pictures….by Roger

Thanks to the excellent efforts of Peter the Punter (Peter Smith) and Augustus Carp (David Langshaw) the fourth site party was held on Friday night. Ladbrokes helped with some sponsorship to keep the costs down. It would be great if in the comments thread those who were there could identify some of those in the pictures. I am in the top right shot with the William Hague haircut. This is a group shot. Mike Smithson

Should your money be on the man with money?

Should your money be on the man with money?

Will it be the wealthiest contender who gets the GOP prize? After Florida on Tuesday the whole nature of the battle for the Democratic and Republican nominations changes and, more than at any stage so far, the importance of money to fund a campaign becomes critical. For a week on Tuesday there will be primaries in states that make up nearly half the population of the US and it’s going to be very hard to make a big impact across…

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South Carolina continuation thread….

South Carolina continuation thread….

Will Bill and Hillary be happy after Obama’s big win? Please continue the discussion here. Latest betting on the Democratic nomination is here. What is interesting tonight is the sheer scale of Obama’s victory which totally dwarfs what the polls were suggesting. UPDATE – 0300: With a likely margin of 27-28% the polls were further out here than they were in New Hampshire. It’s very easy to get carried away by the moment and certainly there has been a big…

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Who’ll come out of South Carolina on top?

Who’ll come out of South Carolina on top?

Will Obama get the breadth of support that he needs? With the polling stations in South Carolina due to close at 7pm ET (0000 GMT) there is not long to wait for the next chapter in the extraordinary drama of this year’s bitter contest for the Democratic nomination. For Obama tonight is pretty crucial. Not only does he need to carry the state with an emphatic margin he needs to show as well that his support is more broadly based…

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Will this sort of “push polling” happen in the UK?

Will this sort of “push polling” happen in the UK?

How an automated canvas is made to sound like a poll This week the excellent Pollster.com site in the US carried this video of what was purported to be a survey from a pollster but was probably what is known as “push polling”. This is defined by Wikipedia as “…a political campaign technique in which an individual or organization attempts to influence or alter the view of respondents under the guise of conducting a poll. In a push poll, large…

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