politicalbetting.com

My last article, arguing Labour are rightly favourite in Selby & Ainsty, provoked a very fair rebuttal from some commenters. The Tories may be vulnerable, but Labour are hardly a party with a history of by-election upsets. That’s what the Lib Dems are for. The Lib Dems have enjoyed three by-election victories since the last election, winning not just Remain-leaning Chesham & Amersham but also Leave seats in North Shropshire and Tiverton & Honiton. In these latter two seats they…

Read More Read More

My immediate reaction to this latest polling from Ipsos is that it can be a lot harder for the incumbent PM to do well on this question than the Opposition Leader. Quite simply the former has to make decisions that are often controversial. Assuming Starmer is at Number 10 within the next eighteen months then he will start to struggle on this measure when he has to make tough calls. Whatever I have always regarded this form of polling as…

Read More Read More

One thing’s for sure – CON MPs aren’t betting on a CON majority As can be seen the betting markets are rating the chance of a CON majority as an 10.4% chance which is way off the YouGov polling of Tory MPs. This is of course backed up by real money. The big number to look at in the next eighteen months or so is the number of CON MPs who will not be defending their seats at the next…

Read More Read More

The polling that could screw-up a BoJo comeback Thanks to TSE for spotting this one – the past vote split on whether Johnson should try to return as an MP. For as can be seen 47% of GE2019 Tory voters who backed Leave say he shouldn’t with 43% saying he should. So a clear majority of those who had a view don’t want him back. This goes very much against the narrative of him being an electoral asset. Yes he…

Read More Read More

If Rishi Sunak was hoping today’s pay review decision might lead to a polling boost he might be disappointed. First of all these pay increases are likely to lead further public sector spending which will put a strain on public services which the voters will not like. Secondly the public will be unhappy with a 6% rise, with just 28% thinking it is right. TSE

Smarkets have this market up on the type of government formed after the next election. For those who still have doubts about if Starmer will win a majority given the level of gains he needs to win a majority. There may well be some value in here, though I would advise reading the terms and conditions. The one thing I feel confident in laying would the chance of a coalition featuring Labour & The SNP. I suspect the SNP price…

Read More Read More

A film released in the summer is quite rightly viewed by Brits as a non Christmas film. The people have spoken. TSE