Could 1997 have Been Worse for the Conservatives On polling day in 1997, I asked my association agent what result we could expect in Hertsmere, where we were defending a majority of 18,000. I can remember my shock when he told me that he wasn’t sure we could hold it, but if we did, it would only be by a couple of thousand (in the end, the Conservative majority was 3,000). Even after polls had closed, I could not believe…
Why has the British Polling Council decided to investigate? A week before Christmas, on December 18th, the above press release was issued by the GLA about a poll showing that 38% of Londoners “strongly supported” plans to increase the congestion charge to the most polluting cars with 21% opposing the scheme. In the normal course of events within two days the pollster, Ipsos-MORI, would have published full data from the survey on its website as part of the transparency arrangements…
Can we rely on the views of just 240 people? With just eleven weeks to go before Britain’s biggest single mandate election which involves more than five million voters the main candidates are today taking part in the first hustings. The winner will occupy what is probably the most power political post in the country with far fewer constraints than almost any other politician in central or local government. If interest is anything like what we saw in 2000 and…
“It’s impossible for Clinton to win enough pledged delegates“ After more than a year of watching Hillary positioning her “inevitable victory” as a key part of her effort to secure the Democratic Party nomination there has been a dramatic new claim from Team Obama. They are now saying that following Tuesday’s round of primaries it is now nigh on impossible for Clinton to come top in terms of pledged delegates where, they say, Barack enjoys a 136 person margin The…
Guest slot on why it will all come down to Texas and Ohio… probably Super Tuesday’s “Split Decision†has raised the prospect of a protracted fight for the Democrat nomination, even a brokered convention. Certainly the failure of the early primaries to produce a presumptive nominee has senior democrats concerned and political pundits excited. However, despite this, it remains likely that a nominee will be decided long before the party’s convention, in Denver in late August. With six wins out…
Why can’t they focus on results and analysis not the spectacle? Like many site visitors, no doubt, I have been spending at least one night a week during 2008 following the absorbing story of the race for the White House on the internet and on the US news channels that are available here. And I have been mighty impressed by the latter which put the fare that the BBC and others produce in the UK to shame. What the Americans…
..or is PBC’s 50/1 shot now just too strong? Three more primaries and three more emphatic victories for Barack Obama – the black senator from Illinois who was tipped here on May 27th 2005 when the odds on him winning the presidency were 50/1. He was tipped here again on October 23rd 2006 when the price had moved to 33/1. To my mind the three Potomac primaries overnight have been the most spectacular so far with Obama eating into almost…
While we wait for the results – check out this… One of the most intriguing pieces that I’ve read in recent days has been this article from the Agitator blog suggesting that Bill Clinton is trying to stop Hillary becoming president. The post opens with a conversation the writer had with an activist about Bill Clinton’s comments about Jesse Jackson in the aftermath of the South Carolina primary. This act, more than just about anything else, has alienated the African…