Rod Crosby asks: Will Regional Swings Help the Tories?

Rod Crosby asks: Will Regional Swings Help the Tories?

Is five seats the most that Cameron can hope for? There has been much discussion on whether regional swings may provide a hidden bonus for the Tories at the next election. In particular, so the logic goes, the Tories are underperforming in Scotland, so they must be doing above average in England (and/or Wales.) True enough, but how can we measure the differences, and calibrate any possible benefit? In truth we can’t, for the simple fact that regional poll breakdowns…

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Should you be backing Boris again?

Should you be backing Boris again?

Is the trend with MORI really quite positive for him? After taking my profits in the mayoral betting last week the odds following last night’s debate have shifted enough for me to start risking some cash again. A price of 4/6, which has been available on Betfair, looks a fair value bet especially after reviewing the detail of the latest polling particularly from MORI. The firm has had three published surveys on the race and produces, effectively, four sets of…

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So who will be Brown’s successor then?

So who will be Brown’s successor then?

My best bet is Andy Burnham With reports this afternoon that “backbenchers are giving the Prime Minster until May 2009 to improve or stand down” the question arises as to which Labour figure would follow him into the hot seat whenever that occurs. One thing’s for certain – there will be no coronations next time. Brown’s successor will have to fight it out in a competitive election in much the same way as the other parties go about it. So…

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Is Ken onto a winner with climate change?

Is Ken onto a winner with climate change?

…or do the voters not really care? As regular visitors to the site will know one of my favourite polling tables each month is the response to the Ipsos-MORI “What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today? (Spontaneous)” question. There are no prompts and the pollster has been asking it in the same way for more than thirty years. There are two questions – in the first respondents are asked to name THE most important issue…

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“Is John McCain Bob Dole?”

“Is John McCain Bob Dole?”

Could the GOP be repeating the mistake of 1996? Anybody thinking of betting on John McCain for the White House should take a look at one or two articles recently that have started to draw parallels between his presidential bid and the last time the Republicans chose a candidate in his early 70s – Bob Dole. Like McCain Bob Dole is a war hero having won two purple hearts and one bronze star. Only a few weeks before the German…

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YouGov Boris lead cut in half in a week

YouGov Boris lead cut in half in a week

This week’s YouGov poll on the London Mayoral race has Boris’s lead before the second preference distribution down from 13% to 6% in a week. The margin is exactly the same for this measure as in yesterday’s MORI survey. The figures are: Boris 45% (-4): Ken 39% (+3):Paddick 12% (+2) Where YouGov and MORI diverge is over what happens to the second preferences. YouGov reports an 8% Boris margin while MORI had this at 2%. This is all in line…

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What can Hillary do about white women?

What can Hillary do about white women?

Are there signs that they are becoming less enthusiastic? If at the end of August in Denver Hillary Clinton is crowned as her party’s presidential nominee then there is one demographic segment she can thank the most – white women. Throughout the campaign the ex-first lady has consistently led amongst this group who, it will be recalled, first made their presence felt when they flocked to the polls in New Hampshire at the start of January and helped her pull…

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Double Carpet on Sunday

Double Carpet on Sunday

A new regular column focusing on the international scene Welcome to what’s planned to be a regular Sunday evening column, partly inspired by Sean Fear’s excellent Friday articles on UK politics. I can’t promise that this column will be quite as regular as Sean’s, but the plan is for it to come out fortnightly if possible and we’ll see how it goes. The “mission statement” for the column will be to focus primarily on international politics, outside the PB mainstays…

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