This week’s YouGov poll on the London Mayoral race has Boris’s lead before the second preference distribution down from 13% to 6% in a week. The margin is exactly the same for this measure as in yesterday’s MORI survey.
The figures are: Boris 45% (-4): Ken 39% (+3):Paddick 12% (+2)
Where YouGov and MORI diverge is over what happens to the second preferences. YouGov reports an 8% Boris margin while MORI had this at 2%.
This is all in line with what I was predicting. On Friday I wrote:“The next polls from YouGov could be critical and my guess, given the way the campaign is progressing, is that it will be suggesting a much smaller Boris lead than the 13% that we had on Monday”.
Clearly the Ken camp will be enormously encouraged by this progress but what is fascinating is how the pollsters are converging. the MORI poll was a move to Boris while YouGov is a move to Ken.
So now the split between the pollsters is on second preferences where we are heading into very tricky territory.
UPDATE: This is how the Standard is covering the story:-