Could the revised tax plan stem the Tory surge? The chart shows the changes in the Labour betting price for Crewe and Nantwich, expressed as an implied probability, during a day which has seen the government trying to get out of the hole it has dug itself into over the 10% tax rate. Clearly Brown and his team were thinking of next week’s election when they decided to make the statement to try to shoot this particular fox. The only…
Dealing with the ex-Labour supporters who said they “didn’t know” At last! We now have the full data from the ICM Crewe and Nantwich by-election poll and I have reproduced the most interesting feature above – how the original numbers produced a 12% lead with the Tories on 47% and what happened when they went through the “spiral of silence adjuster”. For what has happened here is that ICM has followed its standard practice and has allocated half of the…
crewe.tv This could be a good strategy to get the vote out? Labour’s core strategy in Crewe and Nantwich to portray their main opponent as a “Tory Toff” has attracted a lot of criticism and has even proved a bit too rich for some contributors to LabourHome. The sight, as above, of Labour activists seeking to follow the Tory candidate dressed up as “Toffs” and the emphasis on his background in campaign leaflets has been the principle theme of the…
Is Boris’s “goodbye” a sign that the writ is about to be issued? The above has just gone on the Henley Standard website and suggests that the Tories are going to waste no time in setting the processes in train for an early by election to replace Boris Johnson. The piece is a “goodbye Henley letter” from the new Mayor which seems to suggest that the by election campaign has already started. There had been some speculation that he might…
Is this the most likely “end-game” scenario? Whenever the question of the manner of Gordon’s eventual departure is discussed three different possibilities are raised: that he’ll go after leading Labour to an inglorious defeat at the hands of David Cameron; that he’ll be ousted in a bloody coup; or that he will, like other Prime Ministers before him, stand down on health grounds. Only a few have suggested that he might come to recognise that his leadership is undermining his…
crewe.tv Does pre-election polling help squeeze out the third party? The main reason why I have been so confident in my Crewe and Nantwich predictions is the impact that yesterday’s ICM by election poll will have on voting dynamics, particularly in taking the wind out of the Lib Dems’ standard strategy. For with the huge Tory poll surge the only real threat to Cameron was if the Lib Dems could establish themselves as a challenger to Labour thus splitting the…
All Change in Russia – But No Change At All Balakirev considers the Putin-Medvedev handover After a week in Russia where reminders of past Soviet and pre-Soviet glories were much in evidence, clues to the future under Dimitri Medvedev and Vladimir Putin are still hard to find. Medvedev was sworn in at a stunning ceremony which looked more like a tsarist coronation than an inauguration. The next day, the ex-president, Putin, was voted in as prime minister by Russia’s parliament….
Edward Timpson – Conservative – 796 views Elizabeth Shenton – Liberal Democrat 469 views Tamsin Dunwoody – Labour – 181 views Where candidates have more than one video on YouTube I have taken the one with the most views. Mike Smithson